Illinois Rebounding from 07-8 Disaster

Maybe I shouldn't use the phrase "rebounding" as that is the one thing the Illini haven't done well this year. Everything else has gone better than expected as the Illini look like they will be headed back to the tournament after a one year absence.

Ironically, it is the 2007 recruiting class that is leading the resurgence. For a while it looked the 2007 class would be best known for the one that got away. But all Eric Gordon delivered to Indiana was a first round loss in the NCAA tournament, while a trio of Illini sophomores are setting the foundation for another run to the final four.

Sophomores Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale have established themselves as three of the top performers in the Big Ten. And all three have an uncanny ability to get the ball in the hoop. When these guys are on, they hit nothing but the bottom of the net. It's a beautiful sight for Illini fans, especially after watching last year's team lead the Big Ten in bricks and airballs.

Illinois 2007 recruiting class was originally ranked 31st by Scout.com. I don't think there is anyway you could now argue for anything less than a top 5 ranking.

Illinois has had a couple of tough losses this year, but with three sophomores leading the way. they are a wrk in progress. They will keep getting better which should be a scary thought for the rest of the Big Ten. And if the 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes end up as good as expected, Illinois will enjoy a few deep tourneys runs in the next few years.

Illinois Basketball

I'll have to do a little bit of research to find out since I don't remember the last time at least one state team didn't make it the NCAA tournament. We are looking at a very real possibility of this happening in 2008.

Not a single team looks like they will be worthy of an at-large bid at season's end. Illinois State and Bradley might have a chance to win the MVC conference tourneys, and that looks like the only way a team representing Illinois will make it. Quite pathetic.

The state top ten:

1. Illinois State - No one deserves #1 - but they beat UIC who beat Bradley
2. UIC - - Beat Bradley head-to-head.
2. Bradley -Embarrassed at Butler.
4. Illinois - Beat at home by a MAC team - worst offensive team I've ever seen at Illinois.
5. Southern Illinois - I'm not sure why they were rated so high going into this year after losing Tatum and Young off last year's sweet sixteen squad.
6. DePaul - So much talent - so little coaching. Is Wainwright Pat Kennedy Jr.?
7. Northwestern - NU is in their usual cycle and are now 2 years away from being mediocre.
8. Loyola - 2006-2007 was the wrong year for Loyola to peak as Butler and Wright St. ruled the Horizon.
9. Chicago State
10. Northern Illinois

"on the verge": Eastern, Western

Wake Me When It's 2009

No, I'm not talking about the White Sox. Their future is probably a bit bleaker. I'm talking about the Fighting Illini basketball team. Is it too late to take back all the nice things I said a couple of weeks ago?

My optimistic projections were based on three premises:

a.) Shaun Pruitt learned how to pass out of a double team instead of forcing bad shots
b.) Chester Frazier improved his shooting enough to become a legitimate outside threat
c.) Brian Randle would be more assertive on the offensive end (I held out no hope he could stay out of foul trouble)

Last night's miserable performance against Maryland left all three of these premises in shambles. Playing poorly against Duke is one thing, but Maryland is not a very good basketball team, and last night's performance was an embarrassment.

I take no solace in the fact that the game was winnable and Illinois kept it close despite playing poorly. Illinois plays hard enough on the defensive end to compete with all but the elite teams in the country. But their complete ineptitude on the offensive end promises nothing but a repeat of last year's struggles.

One factor is that Weber has players woefully unsuited to his motion offense as no one can finish a drive or consistently hit outside shots. Throwing down low doesn't help much as Pruitt can't get it back it out when the defense collapses.

Some writers found Calvin Brock's production a sliver lining in an otherwise ugly game. But I'm less sanguine on Brock's performance and potential. How pathetic is it that a player who shoots 6 for 14 is your offensive star? And did I mention most of his shots were wide open?

I shouldn't harp on Brock since he was in fact their best player last night. But he has an awful shooting form which will never allow him to consistently hit jumpers. This really should have been fixed his freshman year as his shot greatly limits his potential.

Brock has a great sense for the ball and always seems to find space to get off an open shot. If he could consistently hit them he could be the game changing player the Illini need. Weber has failed to develop Brock into a great player. And Weber's failures are starting to add up.

While Jamar Smith will be back next year, the team figures to continue to struggle on offense until Richardson, Bertrand and Paul get to campus in 2009. Maybe then, with athletic guards and wings, this offense can get back in motion.

Illinois v. Northeastern

Illinois's opening game win over Northeastern was hardly a thing of beauty. The final score was 63-55. Even though the game wasn't as close as the final score suggested, Illinois did not have a good day. Like last year, there were missed free throws, bad outside shooting, and long scoring droughts.

I don't want to make too much of one game as they did get the win. But I don't know if I can take another year of great defense and horrible offense. It's just not much fun to watch.

Hopefully some of the younger guys will play better as none of them stood out except for Bill Cole (6 points). Randle and Pruitt did a good job in the paint but the guards can't seem to make anything happen in the half court set.

In other notable games over the weekend, DePaul blew an early 17 point lead over Creighton and lost their opener on the road. Both teams lost their two best players from last year's squad. DePaul was up by six at the half but Creighton dominated the second and ran away with the victory.

The big surprise in the state was UIC beating Bradley on Saturday. I thought Bradley would be contending for the MVC conference title. But now I'm not sure now as they had no business losing to a team which figures to be middle-of-the pack in the Horizon.

It's That Time

Who's ready for some college basketball? I watched Illinois scrimmage at Glenbrook North last week and there is a lot to be excited about. Illinois has a few good young bigs, Chester Frazier looked good shooting the three, and Pruitt is a beast down low. I think they can be better than expected this year and they have a solid freshman class that will be a good foundation for the next few seasons. Tisdale, Cole, Davis and McCamey have a chance to be part of another final four run. Here's a season preview from the Big Ten Network:



Since I'm feeling optimistic, I'll say the Illini will finish fourth in the Big Ten, even with a very hard league schedule (only Northwestern and Iowa for one game).

Predicted Standings
1. Indiana
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan State
4. Illinois
5. Ohio State
6. Purdue
7. Penn St.
8. Michigan
9. Minnesota
10. Iowa
11. Northwestern

Bubble Watch

I wanted this to look better but unfortunately Google spreadsheets don't quite work like I thought they would. Anyway, in the future I will include a chart of the teams that should be in but for tonight I will just list my bubble teams and how I would rank them right now. I know you can get this information in a lot of places but my main focus is to see where the Illini stack up.

At most, eight of the following bubble teams will be selected for the tournament. Of course there will be some conference tourney upsets that will push a team into the tournament that would not have been otherwise invited, thereby reducing the amount of at-large bids available. You can expect five or six teams of the teams listed below to get an at-large.

1. Maryland - RPI 29
2. Florida State - RPI 27
3. Georgia Tech - RPI 35
4. Michigan - RPI 36
5. West Virginia - RPI 54
6. Stanford - RPI 38
7. Kansas St. - RPI 58
8. Illinois - RPI 42
9. Vanderbilt - RPI 55
10. Bradley - RPI 34
11. Georgia - RPI 41
12. California - RPI 45
13. Northern Iowa - RPI 47
14. LSU - RPI 63
15. Virginia - RPI 66
16. Xavier - RPI 49
17. Miss. St. - RPI 74
18. New Mexico St. - RPI 82

Illinois and Bradley find themselves just outside the bubble, but they only need to pass up a handful of teams to play their way in.

Going Nowhere - Illinois Division I B-Ball

There is no movement in the rankings of the state teams as they all continue to tread water (or sink at the bottom). In reality, there is not much difference between the top four teams. If they played a four team tournament I would be hard-pressed to predict who would come out on top. Illinois and DePaul have the biggest upside and both teams have a chance to prove their worth in upcoming games against top competition.

1. Southern Illinois (14-5 overall, 2-1 last week) The Salukis have lost their last three road games including their last one Wednesday against Evansville. The Purple Aces are the lowest rated team Southern has lost to with an RPI of 98. Salukis have a chance to redeem themselves Saturday at Creighton.

2. Illinois (14-6, 1-1 last week) Illinois has blown a second half lead in five of their six losses this season. This week it was a nine point halftime lead over Michigan State that the Illini couldn't hold. They came back to beat Minnesota on the road on Wednesday. This week they have Wisconsin and Indiana at home. If they win both they shoot right back into the field of 65. Split and they remain on the outside looking in. For Bruce's sake, at least beat the Hoosiers.

3. Bradley (13-7, 1-1 last week) The Braves got a good win at Indiana St. last week, but lost at Creighton. Still looking at an NIT bid.

4. DePaul(12-7, 2-0 last week) DePaul won two games they should have won, at Rutgers and home against St. John's. The Demons have a chance to make some noise over the next two weeks with games against Georgetown, UConn, and W. Virginia.

5. Loyola (12-7, 1-1 last week) They lost at UIC but remain ahead of them in the rankings, thanks to the Flames losing at UW-Milwaukee and the Ramblers winning at Detroit. The Ramblers play their next four games at home and look to improve upon their 4-3 conference record. Butler comes to Rogers Park next Thursday.

6. Illinois State (10-9, 1-2 last week) Beat reeling Wichita State on Thursday but dropped home game to Missouri State.

7. UIC (9-10, 1-1 last week) Beat Loyola then turns around a drops a road game to UW-Milwaukee (RPI 178). Three winnable games coming up against Wisconsin-Green Bay, Detroit and Cleveland St.

The rest:
8. Chicago State (7-15, 0-1 last week) they played Oral Roberts (who beat Kansas) tough on the road before losing 59-53.

9. Northern Illinois(4-12, 0-2) Things don't look like they are going to be getting easier for Rob Judson up in DeKalb.

10. Eastern Illinois(5-15, 0-2) Boy, I had some good times in Charleston. None of those good times involved basketball.

11. Western Illinois(4-14, 0-2) I spent a weekend in Macomb too. Let me tell you, its no Charleston. Western has an RPI of 335 out of 336 teams. I think the Leathernecks should set up a game against Denver (RPI 336) to determine exactly who has the crappiest D1 team in the nation. And congratulations to Larry Dumas, from Bloom High School, on your scholarship to Western. Go Trojans(or whatever your calling yourselves these days)! I hope you're part of the solution and not the problem.

State of Illinois Basketball - Division I

The state has seen better years when it comes to college basketball. Illinois will be lucky to have one team make the tournament in 2007 as the top teams all look pretty mediocre. None look like a top 25 team. Here are my rankings of the state's division I programs:

1. Southern Illinois (12-4 overall, 1-1 in-state) The Salukis have been the most consistent team in the state although their resume is not that impressive. Their best win came against Virginia Tech (RPI 44) and they have lost to the other four top 50 RPI teams they have played (Arkansas, Indiana, Bradley, Northern Iowa). All four loses have been road/neutral games. The Salukis are experienced and play great defense which makes them the most likely team from the state to make the NCAA tournament.

2. Illinois (13-5, 2-0 in state) The Illini suffered injuries and shooting slumps during the non-conference slate and did not pick up a signature win. Wins over Bradley and Missouri are nice but will not get them in the tourney come judgment day.

Weber has taken his lumps for a couple of poor recruiting classes, but the most disappointing players on this team were from Self’s last class: Randle, McBride and Carter. McBride and Carter, seniors, seem destined to leave Illinois without fulfilling their potential.

I’m more optimistic regarding Randle. He had his groin surgery less than two months ago, and understandably looked tentative his first few games back. But he showed the explosiveness fans have come to expect from him in Illinois’ victory over Iowa.

I’m less sanguine about the prospects for the team as a whole this year. They have the potential to make a run in conference play. If Randle continues to make progress coming back from his groin injury, if Carter doesn’t disappear in games, if they can get the ball to Pruitt down low, if Frazier can stay healthy, if McBride and Jamar Smith can consistently hit the outside shot, they can be good. But that’s a lot ifs and an 8-8 conference record and NIT invite wouldn’t surprise me.

3. Bradley (11-6, 4-1 in state) The Braves are the most surprising team in the state as they lost Patrick O’Bryant and Marcellus Sommerville from last year's Sweet Sixteen squad. The Braves lead the nation in 3-point shooting at 45% and have beaten Iowa State, Southern Ill., DePaul, Loyola, UIC and Rutgers. They only have one bad loss (Tennessee Tech, RPI 190) but are still a long shot to make the tourney. Probably NIT bound.

4. DePaul (9-7, 2-2 in state) DePaul has the best scalps of any team in the state, Kansas at home and Villanova on the road. So then how does this team lose to Northwestern and St. John’s? DePaul is not consistent enough to do great things in conference play, so unless they win their conference tourney, they are looking at an NIT bid.

DePaul is easily the most disappointing team in the state right now. Wainwright appears to be a better recruiter than coach. I thought the opposite was true when they hired him.

5. Loyola (11-6, 0-1 in state) My alma mater. This was supposed to be the year we made it back to the tournament. The preseason favorites out of the Horizon league are not living up to their lofty expectations. Their biggest win to date is against Northern Iowa. Butler’s great start means the Ramblers are no longer expected to win the Horizon and with UIC’s upset of Butler on Wednesday, it’s questionable if they are the best Horizon team in the state.

6. Illinois State (9-7, 1-1 in-state) Best win over Northern Iowa. Beat UIC. NIT is the goal for this team.

7. UIC (8-9, 1-3 in state) The Flames are playing better with Jimmy Collins on an indefinite leave. They did beat Butler last night in overtime, but I actually don’t think they will do much in the Horizon as they do not have a win on the road and have five losses to teams with a RPI of +100.

The rest:
8. Chicago State (7-14, 0-1) No conference, few home games, just trying to survive division. At least they’re doing better then the teams below them. Didn’t Kanye West drop-out of Chicago State? Why doesn’t he help the Cougars out? Maybe he doesn’t care….

9. Northern Illinois (4-10, 0-1) They are going to need a great coach to compete in the MAC. The Big Ten, Big East, ACC, Big 12 and SEC heavily recruit the state’s best players. Those who feel snubbed are likely to try and catch on with a MVC team. Where does that leave Northern?

10. Eastern Illinois (5-12, 1-1) Bad. Only team they have beaten in the past month is Western.

11. Western Illinois (4-12, 0-1) Very bad. Only two wins against Division I schools.