Thursday, June 08, 2006

The Return of Grinder Ball

The last two victories over the Tigers rekindled memories of the many one run victories the Sox had last season. They have been a little bit harder to come by this year.

Although both games ended with the Sox on top 4-3, the games differed greatly on how the final outcome was achieved. The first game had the huge mometun swing provided by Cintron's 3 run-homer in the eighth. The guys at provide Win Probabilty charts showing the win probability after every at-bat for all MLB games. The chart from Tuesday's game reflects the dramatic shift in win probability after Cintron's homer.

Tigers at White Sox, 06/06/06

Before Cintron's at-bat the Sox had about a 20% chance of winning. After the three-run blast their chances improved to 80%. That is about as large of a percentage swing you will see in one at bat.

Wednesday's game wasn't quite as dramatic as the teams went back and forth until the Sox scored the final run of the game in the bottom of the seventh.

Tigers at White Sox, 06/07/06

By the way, for those of you who aren't familiar with the fangraphs website, it is quite remarkable. Not only do they keep track of Win Probabilty Added totals for individual players, but they have player charts for almost every meaningful individual player stat by career and season. It's a very unique and useful way of looking at players stats, and it's free.