Erstad Signing

Sox GM Prepares to enter lions' den

By any measure, Darin Erstad has been a pretty bad baseball player over the past six seasons. You do not have to be a stats geek to come to this conclusion. I'm not sure if Mark Gonzales looked at any stats before writing the garbage. Here are some choice selections out of his column today:

Erstad signing may take some of the heat off Ken
Williams
General manager Ken Williams will bring much welcomed relief to douse the verbal flames directed at him Friday when sold-out SoxFest opens.That break will come from Darin Erstad, who will bring more than 11 years of solid production when he's introduced to fans craving a return to the postseason after a one-year absence.

Are any fans excited about this signing? Most people I know just hope he won't be worse then Pods or Brian Anderson.

And if Erstad is recovered fully from a right ankle injury that limited him to 40 games with the Los Angeles Angels last season, he could provide the Sox with the same type of bargain Jermaine Dye has during his two seasons after being hindered by leg injuries.

Well, Erstad and Dye are the same age, so the chances of Erstad having a breakout season ar age 33 are much less than they were for Dye at age 31. Dye was also a much better hitter than Erstad throughout his career.

As a former Nebraska punter, Erstad provides manager Ozzie Guillen with the athleticism the Sox lacked last year. Erstad can bat anywhere in the top of the order, and his ability to bat second could allow Tadahito Iguchi to slide down to more of a run-production spot if leadoff hitter Scott Podsednik recovers from a sports hernia operation.

If Erstad was actually an athletic, top of the order type hitter, he would have commanded much more than a one year, one million dollar contract as a free agent. The Angels only offered Erstad a minor league contract.

The Sox most likely signed a player who is done, and the chances of him being out of baseball by the end of they year are greater than him earning a starting spot in the outfield.

Bubble Watch

I wanted this to look better but unfortunately Google spreadsheets don't quite work like I thought they would. Anyway, in the future I will include a chart of the teams that should be in but for tonight I will just list my bubble teams and how I would rank them right now. I know you can get this information in a lot of places but my main focus is to see where the Illini stack up.

At most, eight of the following bubble teams will be selected for the tournament. Of course there will be some conference tourney upsets that will push a team into the tournament that would not have been otherwise invited, thereby reducing the amount of at-large bids available. You can expect five or six teams of the teams listed below to get an at-large.

1. Maryland - RPI 29
2. Florida State - RPI 27
3. Georgia Tech - RPI 35
4. Michigan - RPI 36
5. West Virginia - RPI 54
6. Stanford - RPI 38
7. Kansas St. - RPI 58
8. Illinois - RPI 42
9. Vanderbilt - RPI 55
10. Bradley - RPI 34
11. Georgia - RPI 41
12. California - RPI 45
13. Northern Iowa - RPI 47
14. LSU - RPI 63
15. Virginia - RPI 66
16. Xavier - RPI 49
17. Miss. St. - RPI 74
18. New Mexico St. - RPI 82

Illinois and Bradley find themselves just outside the bubble, but they only need to pass up a handful of teams to play their way in.

Countdown to Rexstasy

I was going to write a snarky post about how the city was a lot more excited about the baseball playoffs in 2003 and 2005 then they were about this years Bears team. There were even 6,000 no shows for last week's game against the Seahawks. Now that had a lot to do with the huge price tag - but I can't imagine the same thing happening to the Sox or Cubs in the playoffs.

But this week was different. Even if may fans are a bit pessimistic (at least I am) there is a palpable sense of excitement in the city for the game this week. Yet, I still don't think it compares to the what the city experiences during the baseball playoffs, but that's an argument for another day.

As for the game this weekend its hard for me to make any predictions. I do think the offense is good for 21 points. The bigger worry is the defense. They're just pretty mediocre without Tommie Harris and Mike Brown.

But the Saints are not as good as everyone thinks. Jason Whitlock's this week column was pretty enlightening. He argued the Saints are making a big mistake by splitting carries between McAllister and Bush, as Whitlock argues:

Deuce was averaging damn near 10 yards a rip. But Payton kept sending in
New Orleans utility back Reggie Bush to do grown man’s work. Bush was having
decent success. But every carry he got was once less chance for Deuce to break
Jeremiah Trotter’s arm ripping through a hole on a simple isolation.

Siragusa kept subtly pointing this out every chance he got. For some
reason, Moose Johnston was reluctant to fully pick up on what was obvious to
Siragusa and anyone with a brain. New Orleans’ marketing scheme, Reggie Bush,
was stopping the Saints from putting away the game.

It's hard to argue with Whitlock as Bush only averaged 3.8 yards per carry this year with a long run of 18 yards. Bush is still a dangerous weapon in the receiving game, but the Bears may be better off with him taking a lot of hand-offs.

So who do I think will win? Well, as a Bears fan, there is no way I'm putting that in pixels.

Going Nowhere - Illinois Division I B-Ball

There is no movement in the rankings of the state teams as they all continue to tread water (or sink at the bottom). In reality, there is not much difference between the top four teams. If they played a four team tournament I would be hard-pressed to predict who would come out on top. Illinois and DePaul have the biggest upside and both teams have a chance to prove their worth in upcoming games against top competition.

1. Southern Illinois (14-5 overall, 2-1 last week) The Salukis have lost their last three road games including their last one Wednesday against Evansville. The Purple Aces are the lowest rated team Southern has lost to with an RPI of 98. Salukis have a chance to redeem themselves Saturday at Creighton.

2. Illinois (14-6, 1-1 last week) Illinois has blown a second half lead in five of their six losses this season. This week it was a nine point halftime lead over Michigan State that the Illini couldn't hold. They came back to beat Minnesota on the road on Wednesday. This week they have Wisconsin and Indiana at home. If they win both they shoot right back into the field of 65. Split and they remain on the outside looking in. For Bruce's sake, at least beat the Hoosiers.

3. Bradley (13-7, 1-1 last week) The Braves got a good win at Indiana St. last week, but lost at Creighton. Still looking at an NIT bid.

4. DePaul(12-7, 2-0 last week) DePaul won two games they should have won, at Rutgers and home against St. John's. The Demons have a chance to make some noise over the next two weeks with games against Georgetown, UConn, and W. Virginia.

5. Loyola (12-7, 1-1 last week) They lost at UIC but remain ahead of them in the rankings, thanks to the Flames losing at UW-Milwaukee and the Ramblers winning at Detroit. The Ramblers play their next four games at home and look to improve upon their 4-3 conference record. Butler comes to Rogers Park next Thursday.

6. Illinois State (10-9, 1-2 last week) Beat reeling Wichita State on Thursday but dropped home game to Missouri State.

7. UIC (9-10, 1-1 last week) Beat Loyola then turns around a drops a road game to UW-Milwaukee (RPI 178). Three winnable games coming up against Wisconsin-Green Bay, Detroit and Cleveland St.

The rest:
8. Chicago State (7-15, 0-1 last week) they played Oral Roberts (who beat Kansas) tough on the road before losing 59-53.

9. Northern Illinois(4-12, 0-2) Things don't look like they are going to be getting easier for Rob Judson up in DeKalb.

10. Eastern Illinois(5-15, 0-2) Boy, I had some good times in Charleston. None of those good times involved basketball.

11. Western Illinois(4-14, 0-2) I spent a weekend in Macomb too. Let me tell you, its no Charleston. Western has an RPI of 335 out of 336 teams. I think the Leathernecks should set up a game against Denver (RPI 336) to determine exactly who has the crappiest D1 team in the nation. And congratulations to Larry Dumas, from Bloom High School, on your scholarship to Western. Go Trojans(or whatever your calling yourselves these days)! I hope you're part of the solution and not the problem.

State of Illinois Basketball - Division I

The state has seen better years when it comes to college basketball. Illinois will be lucky to have one team make the tournament in 2007 as the top teams all look pretty mediocre. None look like a top 25 team. Here are my rankings of the state's division I programs:

1. Southern Illinois (12-4 overall, 1-1 in-state) The Salukis have been the most consistent team in the state although their resume is not that impressive. Their best win came against Virginia Tech (RPI 44) and they have lost to the other four top 50 RPI teams they have played (Arkansas, Indiana, Bradley, Northern Iowa). All four loses have been road/neutral games. The Salukis are experienced and play great defense which makes them the most likely team from the state to make the NCAA tournament.

2. Illinois (13-5, 2-0 in state) The Illini suffered injuries and shooting slumps during the non-conference slate and did not pick up a signature win. Wins over Bradley and Missouri are nice but will not get them in the tourney come judgment day.

Weber has taken his lumps for a couple of poor recruiting classes, but the most disappointing players on this team were from Self’s last class: Randle, McBride and Carter. McBride and Carter, seniors, seem destined to leave Illinois without fulfilling their potential.

I’m more optimistic regarding Randle. He had his groin surgery less than two months ago, and understandably looked tentative his first few games back. But he showed the explosiveness fans have come to expect from him in Illinois’ victory over Iowa.

I’m less sanguine about the prospects for the team as a whole this year. They have the potential to make a run in conference play. If Randle continues to make progress coming back from his groin injury, if Carter doesn’t disappear in games, if they can get the ball to Pruitt down low, if Frazier can stay healthy, if McBride and Jamar Smith can consistently hit the outside shot, they can be good. But that’s a lot ifs and an 8-8 conference record and NIT invite wouldn’t surprise me.

3. Bradley (11-6, 4-1 in state) The Braves are the most surprising team in the state as they lost Patrick O’Bryant and Marcellus Sommerville from last year's Sweet Sixteen squad. The Braves lead the nation in 3-point shooting at 45% and have beaten Iowa State, Southern Ill., DePaul, Loyola, UIC and Rutgers. They only have one bad loss (Tennessee Tech, RPI 190) but are still a long shot to make the tourney. Probably NIT bound.

4. DePaul (9-7, 2-2 in state) DePaul has the best scalps of any team in the state, Kansas at home and Villanova on the road. So then how does this team lose to Northwestern and St. John’s? DePaul is not consistent enough to do great things in conference play, so unless they win their conference tourney, they are looking at an NIT bid.

DePaul is easily the most disappointing team in the state right now. Wainwright appears to be a better recruiter than coach. I thought the opposite was true when they hired him.

5. Loyola (11-6, 0-1 in state) My alma mater. This was supposed to be the year we made it back to the tournament. The preseason favorites out of the Horizon league are not living up to their lofty expectations. Their biggest win to date is against Northern Iowa. Butler’s great start means the Ramblers are no longer expected to win the Horizon and with UIC’s upset of Butler on Wednesday, it’s questionable if they are the best Horizon team in the state.

6. Illinois State (9-7, 1-1 in-state) Best win over Northern Iowa. Beat UIC. NIT is the goal for this team.

7. UIC (8-9, 1-3 in state) The Flames are playing better with Jimmy Collins on an indefinite leave. They did beat Butler last night in overtime, but I actually don’t think they will do much in the Horizon as they do not have a win on the road and have five losses to teams with a RPI of +100.

The rest:
8. Chicago State (7-14, 0-1) No conference, few home games, just trying to survive division. At least they’re doing better then the teams below them. Didn’t Kanye West drop-out of Chicago State? Why doesn’t he help the Cougars out? Maybe he doesn’t care….

9. Northern Illinois (4-10, 0-1) They are going to need a great coach to compete in the MAC. The Big Ten, Big East, ACC, Big 12 and SEC heavily recruit the state’s best players. Those who feel snubbed are likely to try and catch on with a MVC team. Where does that leave Northern?

10. Eastern Illinois (5-12, 1-1) Bad. Only team they have beaten in the past month is Western.

11. Western Illinois (4-12, 0-1) Very bad. Only two wins against Division I schools.

Pat Riley Plays the Media

Wow, I agree with Jay Marriotti.

The big story after the Bull’s victory last night over the Heat was the flagrant takedown of Luol Deng in mid-air by Miami thug scoundrel James Posey (editors note: you are longer allowed to use racist code words like thug when discussing the NBA). At least in Chicago that was the big story.

It was the third cheap shot Posey has given the Bull sin the past year. In the playoff series last year, Posey blindsided Hinrich on a drive which cost Posey a one game suspension. He fouled Tyrus Thomas hard as went up for a dunk in this year’s season opener and broke his nose (Posey was not punished for that one) and now he has reinjured Luol Deng’s wrist that Deng had broken less than two years ago.

Posey was thrown out of the game last night and might be looking at a multiple game suspension. Of course if it might help Posey’s case if the media attention was deflected off on to something else. Cue Pat Riley.

Riley accused Hinrich of a dirty play that ended up injuring Wade’s wrist:

''Yeah, Hinrich pulled his hand. Hinrich grabbed his hand -- which he does all the time. That's what he does,'' Riley said of the first-quarter sequence. ''Anytime Dwyane comes off screens, they always grab his shirt or his hand. It's a little bit of a tactic, down below the body where the official can't see it. He had Dwyane's hands, and he tried to pull it out of there. And something happened.''

That’s just silly. Hinrich was just trying to fight through a screen and there was no intent to injure anyone.

But ESPN and Deadspin highlight the comments about Hinrich and ignore the cheap shot that might have re-broken Luol Deng’s wrist. Pat Riley, the media maestro.

Rangers get McCarthy from ChiSox in five-player deal

ESPN.com - MLB - Rangers get McCarthy from ChiSox in five-player deal

Is this the move of a man who thinks the White Sox will win the division in 2007? It certainly didn't make the current squad any better.

I was excited to see McCarthy in the rotation this year. He's pitched some great games as a starter and it would have been interesting to see what he could do with a full year in the rotation.

McCarthy was good, young and cheap. And you trade him for three prospects? I understand Danks has a very high ceiling but the move doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Maybe Kenny has another move in the works that will make everything clear. But right now I would have to give this move a thumbs down.

The Big Ten Wonk Is Back

The Big Ten Wonk starts his college basketball previews by looking at Illinois here.

The Wonk provides an amazing amount of insightful and informative college basketball analysis during the college basketball season. If you want stay on top of Big Ten basketball (with some national tidbits thrown in) please be sure book mark his site.

Gross Returns

I know most liberals would like to ignore good economic news in the weeks running up to the election, but to pretend like to economy has been anything but remarkably strong is absurd.

Daniel Gross, in Slate, tries to take Republicans to task for touting the Dow Jones record highs as they prepare for November elections. His article is not exactly false, but it is a complete non sequitur. The stock market does not equal the economy. They often move in step, but the market has many influences that go beyond the strength of the American economy.

If he wants to argue that the economy is not doing well he should, instead he launches into an academic debate about the market not doing as well as Republicans would have us believe (although his argument there is pretty weak too). Since Gross doesn't make an economic argument I'll just show where his analysis comes up short regarding the stock market.

Gross first argues that the Dow Jones index is not representative of the market as a whole and this is certainly true. He goes on to argue that the S&P 500 index is more representative of the entire stock market and 10% off its March 2000 highs. Again this is true, but hardly indicative of the current economic environment. Does Gross actually believe the stock market in March 2000 fairly represented the economic fundamentals of its time and the market's intrinsic value? Is the March 2000 high a proper baseline for judging the current market?

There are two factors that determine market capitalization: current earnings and expected growth. Of the two, earnings are a much better reflection of the economy and earnings have never been better. The chart below, which is adjusted for inflation, shows just how much earnings have grown over the past six years:

S&P 500 EPS - Inflation Adjusted

Year	EPS	adjusted	increase
2006	79.60	67.56	16.85%
2005	65.58	57.82	15.00%
2004	55.16	50.28	17.34%
2003	45.79	42.85	89.18%
2002	23.66	22.65	45.57%
2001	16.00	15.56	-59.96%
2000	38.86	38.86

Overall, earnings per share have grown 74% since 2000. Now let us take a look at how those earnings translated into market caps.

Currently the S&P 500, at 1335 on September 30, 2006, is trading about 17 times earnings, close to its historical average. The index ended its highest quarter on March 30, 2000, at 1498 and it traded just over 34 times full year earnings. If we used that multiple with today's earnings it would give us S&P index of 2700! Of course we wouldn't use that multiple because it was an historical anomaly. Which is the exact reason why we wouldn't want to use it as a baseline for looking at the market today.

Go back to 2000 and ask yourself why the market was overvaluing future growth. There were plenty of reasons: big increases in productivity, low inflation, the tech stock boom. But I don't think you can discount the fact the press was writing about the economy under a Democratic President. And if the NY Times wasn't writing about homeless people shitting gold nuggets under Clinton it's only because the media doesn't write about homeless people under Democratic Presidents.

It's also misleading to suggest that because many sectors are off their 2000 highs that investors haven't fared well the past few years. Unless you're a poor sap who put all their money in the market in March 2000, you would have made much money before and after the S&P reached its peak. The S&P 500 is currently up 65% since reaching the nadir of its current cycle in September 2002.

Finally, I have to mention the ridiculous swipe Gross takes at George Will, even having the gall to call his column absurd. Gross writes:

Take a gander at George Will's absurd column last week. "Economic hypochondria is also bred by news media that consider the phrase 'good news' an oxymoron," he wrote, "even as the U.S. economy, which has performed better than any other major industrial economy since 2001, drives the Dow to record highs." Next, Will pooh-poohed high oil prices, noting "the recent 20 percent decline of the cost of a barrel of oil, from a nominal record of $78.40 (which, adjusting for inflation, was well below the 1980 peak of $92 in 2006 dollars)." Got that? Will celebrates the record nominal high in stock prices but urges readers to focus on the real price of oil.

I'm no fan of George Will, he's a Cubs fan and wears a bow-tie for crying out loud. But there is nothing peculiar or misleading about his column. It's hardly customary to make inflationary adjustments to market indexes outside the academy, and doing so here would have done little to change the substance of Will's argument that the U.S. economy has performed better than its industrial peers.

However, oil is commonly adjusted for inflation, as it should with the central role it plays in the American economy. Gross goes on:

By mixing and matching real and nominal, Will could just as easily have argued that oil is more expensive than it has ever been, while the Dow is barely at the level it reached in 1999. If Democrats controlled the levers of power, he'd be making precisely that argument.

This is just wrong, as he is basically calling Will a hack. But I think he doth protest too much. George Will's bonafides stand on their own as he has earned a reputation as a partisan but honest pundit. The irony is that Gross accuses Will of such hackery in a column in which he so eagerly displays it himself.

TV Notes

I've been watching of bunch of new television shows now that the White Sox season has ended. Unfortunately the remote mostly ends up on TLC, HGTV or the Travel Channel. My wife enjoys home improvement and traveling, and since we can afford neither, the least I can do is let her watch a few tv shows.

Of the three, the Travel Channel has the most interesting shows. Anthony Bourdain can be fun to watch even if he is in love with himself (or maybe because he is). And just last night we watched a fascinating show about the Yawalapiti tribe of Brazil.

It's a tribe that lives completely independent of modern society, although the Chief did sport a pair of glasses in a few scenes. The glasses were about the only piece of clothing I saw on the show. They seemed to have something over their lower privates but I couldn't be sure as the Travel Channel thoughtfully blurred the screen whenever those parts were displayed on camera.

The tribe didn't seem to do much more than bullshit and wrestle all day. On special occasions even the females wrestled each other.

Did I mention they were nude? This is obviously a patriarchal society.

The women weren't exactly ready to appear in a Victoria's Secret catalogue but definitely scored an 8 out of 10 of what I call the National Geographic Scale.

Anyway, I would like to thank my wife for opening my eyes to the stimulating television that exists outside of sports.

But back to sports for a moment. Slate had a nice article calling bullshit on the stupid talk of the Tigers somehow boosting the spirits of Detroit. It's not like Detroit never sees a winner, as both the Pistons and the Red Wings have been good for a long time. My only complaint about the article was the awkward swipe at Reagan. I don't think Detroit's hardships in the 80's can be blamed on "Reaganomics" as the writer states.

Another show I have been watching is Studio 60, which showed great promise in the pilot but has gone downhill since. Dan Kois, in Slate, touches on some of the problems but seems too focused on the show -in-the-show being not funny. That's certainly the case but not the shows biggest problem.

The biggest problem is that Sorkin is trying to recycle West Wing political themes for a show that is supposed to be about sketch comedy. So what storylines do we get: the religious right go after the show, someone digging up dirt on the network president, rubes from Ohio who don't even know the "Who's On First" sketch, the network trying to get an audience for a show about the UN, reminiscing about Hollywood blacklists, giving someone from the inner city a shot at making a better life, etc.

Please, this is supposed to be a behind the scenes look at a sketch comedy show. It doesn't have to be funny but does it need to be so serious?

Huskie Do

Recently, five UCONN fotball players were kicked off the football team for purchasing beer. Coach Randy Edsall showed no mercy in giving this quintet of would-be inebriants the boot even before they had the chance to open up a cold one.

Coach Edsall is far cry from shis basketball counterpart at UCONN, Jim Calhoun, who let's convicted criminals play for his team. I would say Edsall's actions show Calhoun to be ethically challenged, but in fact both Coach's decisions fail to stike the right balance between discipline and compassion.

A player like Marcus Williams, who betrayed the trust of fellow students and athletes when he stole laptops from members of the UCONN women's team, should have never seen the college hardcourt again. The UCONN football players, who bought some beer, much like 95% of the college population, probably just deserved to run an extra lap at practice.

Neither decision reflects well on the University.

When Sting Rays Attack

First a Sting Ray, a creature known to be non-threatening towards humans, kills well-known wild animal showman Steve Irwin. Now comes news that a Sting Ray jumped in a Florida man's boat and proceeded to stab the poor man in the chest.

I believe only those who are willfully blind cannot see what is happenning out there. The oceans are too damn hot! Global warming is no longer some abstract concept with only tangible effects of pleasant winters in the Midwest. Now it's killing people.

The Sting Rays are trying to tell us someting but so far we have chosen not to listen. WILL WE LISTEN BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE!!??!!

Finally, The End

Fun while it lasted, but it sure didn't last long

Last night's loss to the Tigers dropped the Sox playoff chances from improbable to infinitesimal. The last two months have been a frustrating grind and there is some relief in the season's finality. No more hoping and the accompanying disappointments.

A lot of things broke down for the Sox this year (something I'm sure will be talked about at length in the upcoming weeks) but it I don't think it will take much to remain a playoff-caliber team. I look forward to watching Kenny Williams wheel and deal this off-season (just don't trade Sweeney!).

Anyway, let me end this with a picture of happier times:

Frank Thomas Media Relations 101

ChicagoSports.com - Who'll have last laugh in Thome vs. Thomas?

Let me start off by saying Frank Thomas is my favorite baseball player. But man, he seems to have no clue how the media works. For example, when asked to compare your chances to win comeback player of the year compared Jim Thome, the following answers are acceptable:

"I don't care about individual awards, I'm just worried about helping my team get to the playoffs"

or

"We're both having great years and it's an honor to be considered".

It's not that hard. Here is what Thome had to say about Frank:

"I'm happy for him. He battled an injury, not knowing what was going to happen. We both have had really nice years."

These statements might not be true, and they are certainly cliches, but they are still the proper way to answer such a question. But what does the Big Hurt say?

"I know Comeback Player of the Year comes down to numbers, but personally, I think I was more injured than any ballplayer in America. I was written off. I don't think [Thome] was ever written off. Everybody thought I was done . . . . [Thome] has had an excellent year. I think the past four months my year has been more incredible

."

Frank, its a stupid award and it's beneath you to campaign for it. For once, try and say the right thing, even if you don't mean it.

By the way, I take it that Rich Lederer is a big Big Hurt fan as he had an extensive essay on Frank's career on his old blog a few years back and had another nice post on Frank a couple of weeks ago at the Baseball Analysts.

Sox 7 Cleveland 6

I've been posting irregularly on this blog for just over 3 years now and this is the first time I've ever been compelled to jump on the computer to write about a just completed game.

Watching Bobby Jenks blow a two run ninth inning lead in the middle of pennant race (ok, wildcard) was probably the low point of the season. Four doubles in row?

But you know what, I keep watching. When they blew a 3-0 lead to Minnesota a couple of weeks back I thought to myself that I needed to take a break from the Sox. These losses were were having an effect on my emotional state. But I turned on the game the next night anyways to watch the Twins jump ahead with Johan Santana on the mound. Down 5-1 to Santana, I kept watching. They scored a couple of Santana, a couple more of Rincon and Reyes, and finally Dye hit a game tying 2 run homer of uber-closer Joe Natahn in the ninth. And speaking of Dye, how many players do think have hit game tying home runs of Joen Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon this year?

Anyway, the Sox ended up losing that game too, but I keep watching. They have had some mediocre pitching this year and a lot of the bounces have gone the other way (three of the four doubles off Jenks tonight were blooped or within an inch of the foul line). But they never give up and I'm not about to stop watching.

And I would be remiss if didn't mention AJ's heroics tonight. I've seen too many comments on Sox blogs criticizing AJ for his lack of clutchness. I would think his three-run bomb of Ryan Dempster earlier this year would be enough to earn our eternal gratitude. Hopefully tonight's two-run bomb, which I don't think is an understatement to say kept us in the playoff picture, puts an end to such comments.

Finally, I think Sox fans need to start looking at the positives of our situation and stop wallowing in the inevitableness of missing the playoffs. Four out of five starting pitchers just pitched lights out through the last turn of the rotation and we have a better offense than the Twins and Tigers. We might not make the postseason, but its silly to act like we have no chance when we are only a half game out of the wild card.

This is pretty much the same team that won 110 games last year and played .600 ball for the first half of this season. They certainly have a good shot at the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go on a nice run to finish the season.

2006 Run Distribution

Well, the Sox may still have a pulse (although I heard a dead man once got a hit off Kason Gabbard), but I want to get a head start on the autopsy. Here's a quick look at the Sox run distribution this year compared to last year. First let's take a look at the distribution of runs scored (percentage is of all games played):



There's not much to complain about here. The offense has struggled lately, but it was the catalyst of the great start in 2006. The 2005 Sox offense failed to produce runs in many ballgames. Of course they managed to win a fair share of those games anyways. Here's a look at the team winning percentage by runs scored:



As my two year old daughter would say, "Wowser!" This year's Sox team just can't grind out victories. Last year the Sox won 22 games when they scored 3 runs or less and 57 games when they scored 5 runs or less. Through 138 games this year, those numbers are 5 and 29, respectively.

Some of this is luck, but 95% of it is bad pitching. Let's take a look at the runs allowed distributions:



You can see why the Sox won so many of those low scoring games last year. The pitching staff yielded 3 runs or less in 49.38% of their games last year compared to 37.68% so far in 2006. As for the high scoring games, the Sox gave up 7 or more runs in 32 games last year. This year that number is 41 and counting.

There's not much to learn from the runs allowed win percentage chart as the distribution of runs allowed above tells pretty much the whole story. But since I ran the numbers, here is the chart:



Tonight's game against Boston was the first time the Sox were shutout 1-0 this year. They are now 12-1 when they give up only one run after going 25-1 last year.

The Twins, Again

I honestly expected to the Sox to take three out of four in Detroit. The Buehrle loss wasn't a surprise but I didn't see the Contreras meltdown coming. The last thing this team needs is another unreliable starter.

The Sox end up losing a half game in the wildcard standings to the Twins after the split as Minnesota took two of three against the Orioles. The Sox are now only a half game up on the Twins as the two teams start a critical series at the Cell on Friday. It will be up to Javier Vasquez to hold on to the wildcard lead Friday as he takes on Brad Radke in the series opener.

I thought it might be a fun exercise to break down Vasquez' starts to show just how bad his one inning meltdowns have been this season. So I produced a chart that pulls out Javier's worst inning (or partial inning if he was pulled - which of course is not the case most of the time) and compared them to his non-meltdown innings.

Now this is sort of a pointless exercise as you can do this for any pitcher and his numbers are going to show a huge disparity. But I have to believe the ERA gap between Vasquez' good innings compared to his meltdown innings would have to be among the league leaders if you were to keep track of such a stat.

As A Starter	IP	ER	R	ERA	H	HR	BB	K	WHIP
Total	149.1	86	91	5.18	160	18	41	122	1.34
Melt Down Inning	21.1	59	61	24.92	76	12	11	12	4.08
The Rest	128	27	30	1.90	84	6	30	110	0.89

As you can see, for most of the game, 85% of his innings pitched, Vasquez pitches like a Cy Young candidate: less than a runner per inning pitched; almost a K per inning pitched; and only six homers allowed in 128 innings.

However, looking at his worst inning from each game shows you what a basketcase Vasquez can be. He has given up 76 hits in 21.1 IP, nearly as many as he has in the other 128. He has given 61 runs in his bad innings, more than double the amount he has given up in the remaining 128.

In 24 starts, Vasquez has given up at least 3 runs in one inning 12 times. In nine games, Vasquez has entered an inning with a lead only to give up multiple runs and finish the inning with the Sox trailing.

I don't have any explanation for his meltdowns. I can only hope it just a case of randomness and dumb luck. But with meltdowns that bad, I have to think there is more to it.

No Power Mauer

Joe Mauer is getting some buzz in the AL MVP race despite some pretty weak power numbers. Yes, he does have a slugging percentage .516, but that is being propped up by his abnormally high batting average of .359 (abnormal because that .382 BAPIP isn’t sustainable). Mauer’s Isolated Power number is a much more modest .159, good enough for 45^th in the American League, sandwiched between Curtis Granderson and Michael Young.

Mauer has been getting a recent MVP push from the Baseball Prospectus crowd, first in an article by Joe Sheehan, and then in a chat with Rany Jazayerli. Now, I didn’t read BP back in 2001, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this same group criticized Ichiro’s MVP award that was won under similar circumstances.

Sheehan also wrote in his article:

The least-interesting factor in this discussion, yet the one likely to move at least some names on some ballots come late September, is team performance. I think it’s interesting that the Tigers, the best team in the AL, have no one in the discussion. The A’s and White Sox, who could both make the postseason, lack MVP candidates as well.

Talk about no respect. Dye was leading the league in slugging at the time this article was written and Dye and Thome are two of only six players with an OPS of over 1.000 in the American League. I don't think either one is a favorite but I would call them both legitimate MVP candidates.

But back to Mauer . When you take a closer look, Mauer just doesn’t stack up against some of the other contenders in the MVP race:

Player	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	ISO	AVE	OBP	SLG
Mauer	102	26	3	10	60	.159	.361	.441	.519
Hafner	59	28	1	35	85	.332	.302	.427	.634
Ortiz	62	22	1	42	84	.338	.320	.430	.615
Ramirez	75	24	1	32	85	.295	.361	.441	.637
Dye	73	22	2	31	44	.303	.326	.395	.629
Jeter	113	27	3	10	53	.140	.340	.415	.480

I could see giving an edge to Mauer in a close race because of his defense behind the plate, but I just don’t think the race is that close. His powers numbers are dwarfed by Hafner, Dye, Ortiz and Ramirez and I don't think you should be able to single your way into an MVP award.

Mauer does play a very important defensive position. But defense in baseball is more of a commodity than offense and should be rewarded as such. I’m sure the Henry Blanco fan club will be disappointed.

I can see Mauer winning an MVP award once he gets his “man muscles”, but not this year. Don’t feel too bad for him, he has another trophy waiting for him after the season ends.

And yes, I know by writing this Mauer is going to hit at least three home runs this weekend against the Sox.

That's Strange

Both Brian Roberts and Johnny Damon led off with a home run in the Yankees/Orioles game this afternoon, Roberts fifth of the year and Damon's eighteenth.

An hour later, David DeJesus and Pablo Ozuna do the same in the Royals/Sox game. It was even more unlikely in the White Sox game as it was the seventh homer of the year for DeJesus and only second for Ozuna.

UPDATE: The Sox/Royals game also had both leadoff batters (Brown, Dye) lead off the second inning with home runs, which according to the ESPN scroll was the first time in MLB history both leadoff batters in the first and second innings hit a home run.

Cooper Interview

The White Sox starting pitching has started to come around and the team is looking like a World Series contender again.

Apropos of the resurgent staff, Jeff Angus has multiple posts of an interview with Don Cooper over at his Management by Baseball blog. The interview gives you a good idea of the White Sox organization's pitching philosphy and some insights into what Cooper has his starters working on as they try to get through this rough patch.