It Wasn't That Close

A lot has been made about the World Series being one of the closest sweeps in history. That's a somewhat fair assessment as all the games were close, but if you dig deeper into the stats you can see that the White Sox clearly outplayed the Astros.

The Sox cranked out 15 more hits in the 4 games and had 5 more extra base hits, including 3 more homers (4 if you don't count LaneÂ’s bogus home run). Sox batters hit the ball well, putting up a line of:

286/360/487

This was a much better line than what they posted in the regular season and came against the top pitching staff in the National League.

The Astros hit:

203/307/336

With that line, its surprising that they were able to score as many runs as they did (14). Just imagine what the 'Stros line would have been had the Sox not handed out 12 walks in Game 3.

The Sox championship has been compared to the Yanks sweep of the Phillies in 1950. There are similarities including the 6 run differential in total runs scored. Like the 2005 version of the Series, the Yanks also won Games 2 and 3 in the last inning. It featured on extra inning game (game 2 instead of game 3) and one 1-0 game (game 1 instead of game 4). The main difference is how the series ended with the Yanks taking Game 4 easily 5-2.

But looking at the hitting lines suggest the 1950 series was played a bit more evenly with the Yanks hitting 222/295/304 and the Phils 203/250/266.

I think we all remember the many scoring opportunities the Astros failed to take advantage of throughout the series and that leads you to believe the every game could have gone either way. But we often forget that the winning team also failed to take advantage of scoring opportunities. Numerous times the Sox failed to get key hits that would have put a game away. Fortunatelytely, in this series these missed opportunities evened out and the better team came out on top.

Over-Rated

Last off-season the White Sox and Brewers turned a lot of heads by swapping outfielders. It was a questionable move by the White Sox at the time although I offered tepid support. No doubt, the Brewers got the best player in the deal. But the Sox got a useful outfielder who could take over the leadoff spot, a workhorse reliever, and most importantly, were able to dump salary. The salary dump gave Kenny Williams the payroll flexibility to make a number of other acquisitions that included signing El Duque, AJ, and Iguchi. My only question at the time was whether Williams could have gotten more for Lee, but I had no problem with the basic premise of trading him.

Looking back, this was the trade, a very bold one, that laid the groundwork for the 2005 Championship team. Williams must have known he was going to be criticized for this move and he was. Podsednik was being called “overrated” by every pundit across the blogosphere. William's reputation took another hit.

One season later I think it is safe to say that one of the outfielders traded was over-rated. Surprisingly, that player is “El Caballo” himself, Carlos Lee - not Scott Podsednik.

As I said, I’m not going to argue Pods is a more valuable player than Lee. But without a doubt, Pods has more value at $800,000 than Lee does for $8,000,000. Lee, a power hitter, has only one season where he slugged more than .500 (2004 in homer friendly US Cellular), has never cracked a .900 OPS, and this year, dubbed a “breakout year” by some, had an OPS of .811. His final 2005 line was:

265/324/487

That’s certainly not a bad line, but it's not much better than what Brady Clark, Lee’s Brewer teammate, put up for a bargain $1.1 million:

306/372/426

And his other Brewer teammate and outfielder, Geoff Jenkins ($7.3M) had a much better line:

292/375/513

As for Pods, his line for 2005:

290/351/349

Obviously, his OBP out of the leadoff spot was what he brought to the White Sox. It is not even great, but as a team the Sox only got on base 32% of the time, so his numbers out of the leadoff spot were critical to the Sox offense.

So what have we proven? Carlos Lee is a good hitter. But he’s certainly not an elite hitter, and at age 29, probably won’t turn into one. He is overpaid and the Sox were wise in moving him.

But now, through no fault his own, Lee has progressed firmly into over-rated territory. This year Lee was one of three NL Outfielders awarded the Silver Slugger. Lee has to be one of the worst outfielders to ever win this award. It's pretty hard to believe they gave it to him as he has the 27th highest OPS among outfielders in the majors. Even in a down year in the NL, there is no way he should have won this ahead of any of the following candidates:

Jason Bay (OPS 961 – should have won)
Ken Griffey Jr. (947)
Lance Berkman (934)
Adam Dunn (927)
Jim Edmonds (918)
Brian Giles (905 in Petco)
Geoff Jenkins (888)
Bobby Abreu (879)
Cliff Floyd (863)
Jose Guillen (817 in RFK Stadium)

In fact, since 1980 when MLB began awarding the Silver Slugger, I only found two NL outfield winners with a lower OPS than Carlos Lee. In 1981, Dusty Baker won with an OPS of 808 and in 1986 Dave Parker won with an OPS of 807. But both of these players had a higher OPS+, which takes into account the run scoring environment as well as park factors. Baker had an OPS+ of 133, Parker 117, and Carlos Lee had an OPS+ of 110. That's not much better tha league average (100).

I rooted for “El Caballo” when he was on the White Sox and I hope he continues to do well with the Brewers. But the myth that he is one of the games elite hitters needs to be put to rest.

Black Sox History

There was an interesting article in the WSJ Online yesterday covering new ground on the 1919 Black Sox scandal. Things were not as simple as Eight Men Out would lead you to believe. Give it a read here.

I Love Parades

The parade route ends right at my building at LaSalle and Wacker. It's 10:30 right now, 90 minutes beofre the parade starts, and there is already a large and loud crowd outside. I can hear them loud and clear on the 25th floor.

World Champions

I don't have anything to add right now. Just enjoying the moment. A great game to end it, another 1-0 victory. And the Sox finish the year with their fifth 8 game winning streak. Unbelievable.

Blum Trail Blazer

So if the roof is closed Blum's liner doesn't make it out of the park, right? I think that is what all the Ass-Trolls were whining about.

Thankfully, Houston got all those walks, a bad call in their favor, and the benefit of an error on what should have been the last out of the game. If that would have happened to the Sox, we would be hearing even more bitching and moaning about how they get all the breaks. More importantly, the Ass-Trolls showed very clearly that its not the good breaks in themselves that put you over the top but rather how you respond to them. You can respond like Houston by popping out, striking out and hitting weak grounders, or you can respond like the Sox and hit grand slams and walk off homers.

As for Blum's heroics, they couldn't have come at a more opportune time. Marte was the last guy in the bullpen and he really can't be relied upon to throw many zeroes up there. If after Blum's homer, I was still plenty worried about marte coming out for the bottom of the 14th.

He started off great, getting Ensberg on three pitches. I was tired and I'm not even sure of the exact sequence, but how do you then walk Orlando Palmiero (or was it Vizcaino). I'll have to check the boxscore, but I remember way too many walks to very weak Houston batters. I guess there were way too many walks period.

But kudos to Ozzie for bringing out Buehrle. One inning of work (and it ended up being 1/3) isn't going to prevent him from starting Game 6 on Saturday. And more importantly, bringing him in for the save makes a game 6 seem unlikely.

One game away from being World Series Champs. I can't believe this.

Bring On The Astros

The White Sox certainly have their work cut out for them. They face 3 starting pitchers that all have a lower ERA than the Sox number one starter Mark Buerhle. But the Sox do have some things going in their favor.

According to the ESPN Stats page, the Sox hit power pitchers to a tune of 273/326/446 this season compared to 256/291/429 against finesse pitchers. This is a good sign going up against some of the best power pitchers in the game (and in Clemens case, baseball history).

Another good sign are the Sox career stats against the Astros top three pitchers.

They've banged around Ol' Roger pretty well: 280/351/518 including 10 home runs. Big Frank did a lot of that damage, but Crede, Dye and Konerko have hit him pretty hard as well.

Sox batters have a similar line against Pettitte: 305/369/500 including 5 home runs. Again, most of this damage was done by Big Frank, but he has also been hit hard by Konerko and Dye.

Only Pods has had over 20 ABs against Oswalt going 261 with a double. But AJ has gone 5/8 the few times he has faced him.

One thing that is overblown, and is not much of an advantage to the Sox, is the ineptitness of the Astros offense. In fact, the inept Astros offense scored more runs per game after the All Star break than the Sox (who had the benefit, or in the case of Carl Everett the detriment, of the DH). The Astros averaged 4.38 runs in the second half while the Sox scored 4.32.

What does all this mean? Probably not much. But I know this, if the Sox continue to limit their opposition to 3 runs per game they will win the World Series. And since they have limited two better offenses in the postseason to that so far (3 rpg to the Red Sox 2.2 to the Angels) they should be able to shut down the Astros.

Scoop Jackson: Bringing Incoherent Rambling to A New Level

I usually don't read the South Side's very own Scoop Jackson. His style of writing is a bit disjointed and rambling. But hey, when the Sox are in the World Series, you will read anything that mentions them.

Anyways, I don't want to write about how hard it was to drudge through Scoop's column. I just wanted to mention a couple things that didn't ring true to me. Actually, the whole thing doesn't ring true to me in a "he doesn't capture the feeling of a city" kind of way. But two statements he makes don't ring true in the "I doubt that actually happened" kind of way.

First he writes that "I knew it was serious when I heard little black kids walk past my house after they got out of school and pronounce Pierzynski's name right" Haha. Maybe this was just meant as a joke. But I just don't see little black kids getting out of school and talking about the exploits of A.J. Pierzynski. Actually, I don't see any kids getting out of school talking about A.J. Pierzynski.

Now, I don't live on the Southside, and I don't know if Scoop does either. Maybe he does, and maybe all the kids around there have bought into Sox fever. And maybe, just maybe, AJ is attracting some type of cult following among them. But I have to call total bullshit on this next example:

"I knew it was serious when I drove downtown to pick up my wife from work and heard someone in a group of white businessmen actually say: 'Even though he's not the prototype executive, Kenny Williams is the best general manager in Chicago sports history.'"

Now, I do work downtown, and I know what type of things come out of whitey's mouth. And this doesn't sound like one of them. This sounds like something a black sportswriter thinks a white businessman would say.

"Not the prototype executive". See, now this is Scoop's way of implying that the person speaking is prejudiced . And the sentence really doesn't make sense. "Even though...". Even though what? Even though he's not the prototypical executive. What does that even mean? How is he any different than the other GM's. Oh right, he's black. Whitey can't get over that fact. Racists. The things you overhear from your car when you pick up your wife from work.

And secondly, I've never heard anyone say anything like Williams is the best GM in Chicago sports history. I'm not saying no one believes it, or that there aren't a lot of Kenny Williams fans out there (I'm one of them). I'm just saying you hardly ever here anyone making blanket statements like that when it comes to discussing somthing like a GM. Especially one that is experieincing his first palyoff season after 5 years on the job.

Anyways, he has a few other anecdotes in there that also sound false but I'll let you try to make your way through his column on your own..

Now, I don't want to accuse Scoop of making things upand for all I know these were just slight embellishments. It just rings a bit false to me and that's one mans opinion.

Chicago Baseball

I don't want to go into too much of a rant here, but Cub fans sure are bugging me, as well as sportswriters.

For a long time I used to root for both teams but that has become more and more impossible over the past few years. There's too much bad blood out there and you end up being forced to choose sides.

Its basically the same way in politics. I really don't fit into either side. I guess I'm what you would call fiscally conservative and socially liberal. And I firmly believe that both parties are controlled by special interests, often the same special interests, and care little about doing what is best for their fellow Americans. But I always end up voting for Republicans.

Why is that you ask? Because the Democrats are always running around screaming how the Republicans are evil, corrupt, and controlled by special interests. I'd rather vote for an asshole than a hypocrite.

Its pretty much the same way with Cubs fans. All they talk about is how awful Sox fans are. "They are always insulting the Cubs", "Sox fans are obsessed with the the Cubs", blah, blah, blah. Well here's a newsflash: Cubs fans act the exact same way!

Now it true you won't see much talk about the Sox when the Cubs are in the playoffs as was the case in 2003. But that's because this its a Cubs town. Even when the Sox are winning it's hard to ignore the elephant in the living room. Believe me, I would be more than happy if the sports section was completely devoid of all things Cub. But when the biggest media presence in the city owns that Cubs, that will never happen.

For crying out loud, in Sunday's Trib sport section, the day after the Sox went up 3-1 against the Angels, the Trib's two main writers had columns on how Cub fans should be rooting for the Sox. The Sox just inched closer to their first pennant in 46 years, and these idiots are writing about Cubs fans? Who gives a crap who Cub fans are rooting for.

So for all you Cub fans bitching and whining about how insufferable Sox fans will be if they win the World Series, take it from me: there is nothing more insufferable than a hypocrite.

Ecstasy Can Wait

The Sox won the pennant in dominating fashion and capped it off with a come from behind late inning victory. The game was awesome and you could not ask for a better way to win it. I was psyched when they recorded the final out. I've been in a pretty good mood the last couple of days. But I haven't had the sense of jubilation that I though would come with winning the pennant.

I think its because we're so close now that anything less than a World Series victory would be a disappointment. We've come too far, and the journeys been too long, for us to come up short now.

This has been a great season - in fact the greatest season I've ever experienced. But man, I know I'll be in a world of hurt if they don't win four more games.

ALCS Game 2: The Phantom Trap

Wow. I didn't see that one coming. It didn't look like the Sox would ever score against the Angels bullpen. But then it happened. The Sox got the biggest playoff break since Steve Bartman went souvenir hunting. Just like that this series is tied and we are off to California.

Now, the controversial third strike call without a doubt changed the course of this game. But just like the Bartman play, it did not cost a team the game. It put a runner on first with two outs. Not exactly a threatening situation for the Angels bullpen. The Angels then let Ozuna steal second without a throw. Then Escobar throws an 0-2 meatball to Joe Crede. Joe Crede, who wakes up in the middle of the night screaming from nightmares of 0-2 curveballs in the dirt. That's what cost the Angels the game.

The Sox caught a break and took advantage of it. Luckily, Mark Buerhle pitched a gem, and gave the Sox the opportunity to steal this one. This is the performance I've been waiting to get form Buerhle since they started to slide in August. That was an ace on the mound.

Looking ahead, I think the Sox would be in a great position if they could just split the next two games. If I were the Angels, I would not want to go into to games 5 and 6, tied 2-2, against Contreras and Buerhle.

ALCS Game 1

This is usually the type of game that the Sox would win 2-1. Unfortunately, the Angels were able to score 2 runs in the third on a couple of weak grounders and that was difference in the ballgame.

Yes, the Sox had a couple of chances to rally late and failed to execute. But the bigger problem is that AJ was the only player to hit the ball well last night. Crede did hit a homer in the third, but didn't look that great in his other at bats. Sometimes your offense has an off night. Unfortunately, the Sox offense has a lot of off nights. The great thing about this team is that they are able to win a lot of these games anyways. It didn't happen last night, but if they continue to get pitching, I'm confident they will able to put together 4 wins.

The only thing that bothered me about this game was the decision-making by Guillen. While a lot of pundits made a big deal of Pods and Rowand failing to execute sacrifice bunts, I think the bigger problem was having them bunt in that situation in the first place. The Angels were expecting it and Figgins was playing 20 feet in front of third base. You have to take what the defense gives you. If they take away the bunt, don't try to force it. Try to shoot a ball past the drawn in third baseman. The Sox just gave away two outs, and in doing so, possibly the game.

And Oh Yeah...

What the hell was Chris Berman talking about the last couple of innings? The Red Sox were tired from being in so many important games the past couple of years? Please. They have 4 months off after the season. And as far as I know, Matt Clement and David Wells, Game 1 & 2 losers, weren't even on the Red Sox last year.

Sox Sweep!

I was optimistic going into this series, but anyone who has watched Chicago baseball the last 30 years can't help but have doubts linger in the back of their head. But this is the type of team that can win the World Series. They took three games from the Red Sox in three different ways. In Game 1 they pounded them. They stole Game 2 by taking advantage of Graffinino's big error. In Game 3 the bullpen came in (what an unbelievable performance by El Duque) and shutdown the Red Sox.

But I'm not going to worry about the LCS or Worlds Series right now. I'll just enjoy the first White Sox playoff series victory in my lifetime.

Game 2 Thoughts

I’m not quite sure why so many Red Sox fans are optimistic with David Wells taking the mound tonight. He has a pretty mediocre overall ERA of 4.45 and a Jose Lima like road ERA of 5.56. I don’t think the White Sox are going to have too many problems scoring tonight and I would be surprised if they got less than 4 runs off Wells.

I keep hearing that Wells is a “Big Game” pitcher. If they mean he’s the size of an elephant I know what they're talking baout. But if they are talking about his 10-3 post season record I think they need to live in the present. Orel Hershiser had a pretty good post season record too, but I wouldn’t want him taking the hill for me in the 2005 playoffs.

The big question Mark is Buehrle. Can he contain the Red Sox offense? He couldn’t in his two starts against them in the regular season. It’s odd considering Buehrle should be the White Sox best option against the lefty bats on the Red Sox.

I think Buehrle will pull through and pitch a solid game. And White Sox fans will spend the off day on Thursday daydreaming of ALCS matchups.

White Sox 14, Red Sox 2

Well, this playoff series is already more exciting than the last one we played in 2000. And its our first series lead since the Sox took Game One from the Orioles way back in 1983. I'm optimistic this one turns out differently.

I hope all the players are ready for tonight after pounding the Red Sox in Game 1. Going to Fenway tied 1-1 would be a major downer.

My thoughts on Game 1:

* Contreras didn’t look that sharp to start the game. He didn’t really take command until the fifth. Iguchi’s play throwing Millar out at third in the fourth inning was huge. If he throws that ball away the Red Sox probably score their third run of the game (making it 6-3) if not more. And if it’s closer they might have given Clement a quicker hook and we also wouldn’t get to tee off on the hapless Jeremi Gonzalez to make it a blowout.

* Just because we scored 5 in the first doesn’t mean having Iguchi lay down a bunt was smart.

* It's not that surprising Pods hit a home run. The surprise was that he went all season without one after hitting 12 last year.

* I have to agree with the Cheat, too many curtain calls. Only A.J. deserved one after hitting his second homer. Maybe Pods just for laughs.

* Speed doesn’t slump? I guess we can put an end to that cliché. I’m sorry, but a 50% success rate stealing bases just doesn’t cut it. If Pods can’t steal at a 80% rate, he should keep his ass planted on first base. I’m not sure if he’s injured, or just getting bad jumps, and I don’t care. I’m just tired of seeing him get thrown out.

AL Central Champs

After nearly blowing a 15 game division lead I feel more a sense of relief than excitement. It looked like the players felt the same way as they took the field to celebrate. I'm sure I'll feel more excited when I get home and pop open the champagne (of beers, that is).

Anyways, the Sox have already won 96 games and deserve congratulations on a great 2005 regular season. I thought 3rd place in the divisiom was a real possibility (I never thought fo a second that they would finish 4th as some predicted)and they eserve a lot of credit for not only winning the division, but also for most likely finishing with the best record in the AL.

Did Gardenhire Hold Back Santana To Pitch Against Sox?

A couple of weeks back I looked through the schedule and was relieved to see that the Sox were scheduled to face Johan Santana only once in the home and away series the Sox and Twins began this past weekend. But then the series came and to my shock (and horror) realized that we would have to face him twice.

The funny thing is that he was scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, but Gardenhire started rookie Francisco Liriano instead. And Friday, Gardenhire opened the Sox series with Scott Baker. So he starts on Saturday, shuts down the Sox, and is scheduled to open up against the Sox in the series that starts Thursday at the Cell. Is this just coincidence or is Gardenhire trying to help out the Indians? If he starts either Wednesday or Friday, he pitches only once in the 7 games.

But I think the Sox may have a surprise ready for the Twins on Thursday when Brandon McCarthy takes the hill against the hapless Twins hitters.

Sox Wild Card Magic Number Is Actually 9

A couple of weeks ago as the Sox pushed their lead back up to 9.5 games I took a shot at those who seemed ready to jump off the bandwagon. But 10 games later, with the lead down to 3.5 games, I might be the one to end up looking foolish. The Sox need to at least split the six remaining games with Cleveland to hold on the division. Winning only two might not be enough as Cleveland gets to play TB and KC seven times down the stretch.

Of course even if they end up losing the division they should have no problem holding on to the Wild Card. In fact, for the Sox to lose the WC, they would need Cleveland, Boston, and the Yankees to pass them in the standings.

Top three make playoffs:

Team GB
CHW 90-58 -
CLE 87-62 3.5
BOS 87-62 3.5
NYY 85-63 5.0


It has been said that the Sox magic number for the WC is 10, but in reality it is only 9. If the Sox get to 99-63 there is no way both NY and Boston can pass the White Sox as NY/BOS have play each other three times. For example if the Yankees went 14-0, to match the White Sox at 99-63, the Red Sox would have to at least lose 3 games to the Yankees and their best potential record would be 97-65.

Best Possible Records for NY/BOS:

Red Sox Sweep: BOS 100-62, NYY 96-66
Red Sox take 2 of 3: BOS 99-63, NYY 97-65
Yanks Take 2 of 3: BOS 98-64, NYY 98-64
Yankis sweep: BOS 97-65, NYY 99-63

This is why the Sox still have a 97% chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prosepctus.

Oh Really

Funny reading this on Andrew Sullivan's blog: "One thing I keep thinking: there's still so much we don't know about what really went on in New Orleans."

That sure doesn't stop him from commenting on it(er, placing blame)!

Pitching Comes Through

I'm not going to say I wasn't a little bit worried as the Sox stumbled through August. But many Sox fans were actually expecting the Sox to blow their division lead. The fact that the Indians never got closer than 7 games back and the Sox are back on track to reach 100 wins makes these people look pretty foolish. I just don't think many people have faith in this team.

It's easy to understand. Offense always seems to impress people and the Sox are barely adequate in that department. But this is the best pitching staff the Sox have put together in my lifetime and pitching is what is needed in the playoffs.

If they can pitch in October the way they have pitched in September, the Sox have a great chance of bringing a World Series title to Chicage for the first time in 88 years. Here is what the staff has done so far in September:

7-0
1.57 ERA
.189 opponents batting average
.84 WHIP
58 K
10 BB (5 last night)

Wow.

Forfeit?

This can't be right. An item in the NY Daily News (via the Trib)stated the White Sox voted to forfeit their rained out game against the Red Sox instead of traveling to Boston on Labor Day to make it up.

If true, I can only assume the players voted on it before their 7 game losing streak. While they still have a healthy division lead, they are in no position to be giving games away.

A Much Needed Day Off

After posting a 57-29 record at the All- Star break, the Sox have started the second half at 17-15. Of course before the recent five game skid they were at a not too shabby 17-10. I decided to look at some pre and post break numbers to see if anything stands out.

Runs per game pre: 4.81
Runs per game post: 4.63

ave/obp/slug pre: 262/323/420
ave/obp/slug post: 258/318/433

ERA pre: 3.62
ERA post: 3.81

unearned runs per game pre: .31
unearned runs per game post: .41

Runs allowed per game pre: 3.95
Runs allowed per game post: 4.32

As you can see, the Sox have begun to slip a little bit in every category. Runs scored decreased by .18/game while runs allowed increased by .37/game, narrowing their advantage from .86/game down to .31/game. Getting Podsednik back should help a little. However, their batting stats suggest they are not getting the clutch hits they were at the beginning of the year as their OPS is about the same. I'm not sure how much we can hope the offense to improve without making a trade.

Pitching and fielding have slipped a little, as both earned and unearned have increased in the second half. Buehrle is responsible for most of this drop as his post break ERA is 4.53 after finishing the first half at 2.58.

Hopefully Buehrle isn't injured and will be effective the remainder of the year. But maybe these poor outings are a blessing in disguise if he falls out of the Cy Young race and he can skip a few starts before the playoffs.

No Need To Panic

A lot of Sox fans are in full panic mode with the Sox losing 4 in a row and playing 500 ball since the All-Star break. And yes, it has been depressing losing 2 straight to the Twins, and quite horrifyng watching Timo play every day(and bat lead-off!). I'm sure last night's 2-run double will keep him in the line-up until Pods get back.

The offense has been pathetic. But, when the playoffs come, Timo will be watching them from the bench (and Jon Adkins will be watching from home). And I have no doubt Kenny will pick up someone who can DH from the left side.

Actually, we already have someone who can DH from the left side and his name is Ross Gload. But for some reason he's playing in Charlotte. So while we wait to see if Ken Griffey Jr. makes his way to the Southside, maybe Kenny can send down Adkins and bring up Gload?

The offense has been mediocre most of the year and the Sox have been winning anyways. With Pods going down, we now have three sub-standard offensive positions at left, 3b and SS. Once we get a left fielder back things should be back to normal and the Sox should be set for the playoffs.

While we wait for pods to return, I think the best move would be for Jurassic to get some time in left while bringing up Gload to DH.

Sounds Like A Well Played Game

This game jumped out at me while I was checking scores. Through 4 innings of the KC/Boston game 14 runs have scored on only 6 hits. Yikes.

Frank Out for The Year

It's been a while since I blogged as I've been busy with moving and selling my condo. Farewell Chicago, hello suburbs (ugh).

Anyway, the big news is that Big Frank is most likely out for the year. Now this shouldn't hurt their chances to make the playoffs which, barring a complete collapse, are a sure thing. But it sure will hurt them in the playoffs when their mediocre offense will have to line up against good pitching every day.

So now is the time for Kenny Williams to stop worrying about AJ Burnett, or any other pitcher, and pick up another bat who can help the Sox score some runs this postseason. I'll take my chances with a starting rotation of Buerhle, Garland, Garcia and Hernandez (if a 4th starter is needed). But I don't think this offense can produce enough to take the Sox to the World Series.

Three names I would like to see in a Sox uniform:

Adam Dunn
Ken Griffey Jr.
Aubrey Huff

Sox Are Not Like The 2003 Royals

I’ve read a few articles comparing the Sox to the 2003 KC Royals, including one in today’s Tribune, and a lot of smart people have blogged the same thing. But the two teams have very little in common.

- The 2003 Royals started the season at 17-4. That is where the Royal’s would peak as they would not reach 13 games above .500 again. The Sox are 49-22, 27 games above .500 after 71 games.

- The Royals were 37-34 after 71 games and in second place. Only a horrible three week stretch by both the Twins and White Sox left the Royals 7.5 games up at the All Star break with a 51-41 record.

- The Royals were outscored by their opponents in 2003, 867-836, even though they finished with a winning record (83-79). Now that’s luck. The Sox have outscored the opposition 344-271 so far in 2005.

- The Sox are built on pitching (3.56 ERA). The Royals were built with smoke and mirrors and they had a 5.03 ERA, third worst in the league.

So for all you Twins fans looking for a 2003 repeat, don’t bet on it.

Offensive Consistency

For awhile now I've been wanting to test the hypothesis that although the Sox scored way more runs last year, their offensive consistency this year was helping them win more ballgames. But it sounded like hard work! Anyway, I knew with all the great baseball minds out there someone would eventually run the numbers and tell us what's going on.

And here are two bits of information that help answer this hypothesis. First, this piece by John Dewan explains that while the Sox don't have the big games as often as last year's team (2 games above ten runs instead of 14 through 64 games - 14!) they have only scored less than 2 runs five times compared to ten times last year.

Studes then takes this discussion further (scroll down) to show that Sox offensive output is bunched around 2-7 runs per game, and is more highly concentrated around these numbers than the rest of the league.

As they say, read the whole thing. But the bottom line is if you combine an offense that consistently score 2-7 runs per game with a good pitching staff you are likely to win a bunch of games.

Finally, I think this clear headed analysis shows that it might be better if the Hardball Times had someone other than an avowed White Sox hater write about the best team in baseball.

Understatement of the Year

"Frank is one of the best on-base percentage people in baseball in the last 14 years" - White Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen 6/19/05

Frank Thomas' .428 OBP ranks 11th best in major league history.

Durbin, Our Senate Embarrassment

For some reason our humble state is unable to produce many leaders that we can take much pride in. Our governor may have "testicular virility" but he is not the biggest Dick in the state. That would be our senior Senator Dick Durbin.

Dick Durbin is a moron for two reasons. Well, actually, he's a moron for a whole buncj of reasoms. But right now I'll focus on his use of the always ill-conceived use of a Nazi analogy on the Senate floor this week. (Note to politicians - do not make analogies to Nazi Germany unless your opponent is attemting to murder 6 million Jews - even if you have an apt analogy it will be lost in the frenzy that will surely follow). First, he’s a moron because he had know idea that comparing our interrogators and the Guantanamo detention center to Nazis, the Khmer Rouge, and a Soviet gulag would cause a political firestorm. Second, he’s a moron because it completely overstates the complaints being made at Guantanamo.

I don’t care how many Korans were tossed on the floor, that hardly makes it a Nazi death camp. Maybe we shouldn’t do it, but if you ask me it’s not a bad idea to exploit their religious fanaticism to our own benefit.

And for crying out loud, I’m supposed to get worked up because these terrorists have their personal space invaded by female interrogators? Well, holy shit, where do I sign up for these interrogations?

The main complaint Durbin seems to have was that one prisoner was chained up naked a got the shivers because the air conditioning was set too low. Not very nice, but far from the awful experience of a Soviet gulag.

Another complaint was that prisoners are forced to listen to loud rap music. Well, boo fucking hoo. Unless it was Vanilla Ice, I would have a hard time calling that torture. My wife deals with it. And have you listened to Pakistani music? If you have then you'll have a hard time believing a little Ludacris will drive these guys over the edge.

Now I want to make clear that I am not promoting the use of heavy handed torture techniques, or having any prisoners demeaned and humiliated in the way they were at Abu Ghraib. But what Durbin is complaining about at best comes to crossing a line that I would draw, but hardly justifies him comparing our methods (I’ll give him the benefit of doubt that he’s not comparing our troops) to those of the most murderous regimes in modern history.

The best editorial I read about Durbin appeared in the Investors Business Daily which ended:

Al-Qahtani is the so-called 20th hijacker of 9-11. Among the other "torture" techniques said to have been used in his interrogation is showing him pictures of the burning towers, the incinerated bodies and the deaths of 2,973 Americans.
It might not be a bad idea if Sen. Durbin and his brethren were forced to look at them again as well.

Pitching Wanes, Offense Waxes

It was great to see that touchdown the Giants scored on the Twins last night in the 9th. Even more encouraging is that Joe Nathan doesn't seem so unhittable this year.

Last year Joe Nathan gave up 13 ER runs in 73 appearances. This year he's given up 12 ER in 28 appearances.

And looking at his stats you can see that Gardenhire is not using his best reliever very efficiently or maybe Nathan doesn't have the "testicular virility", as our governor might say, to come in with runners on. So far this year he has not inherited a runner in any of his relief appearances.

But enough about those soon to be former Central Division champs. Let's talk about the Sox.

The Sox offense has arrived in June as they lead the AL in runs scored and home runs for the month (helped slightly by a 15 run game at Coors field). Even Joe Crede is getting into the mix in June, batting a very impressive 306/405/694. And if this past series against the D-Backs is any indication, the balls are going to be flying out of the Cell as in years past.

Unfortunately, that's bad news for our pitchers. As the offense has heated up, the pitching has slipped. This shouldn't be a suprise as many of the Sox pitchers were playing well above the career averages the first two months of the season. All the starting pitchers except for Buehrle have posted a high ERA this month:

June ERA
Buehrle 1.93
Garland 5.03
Garcia 5.14
Contreras 5.50
Hernandes 7.56

I would say both Garland and Garcia have pitched a little bit better this month than their stats suggest. Poor defense led to 4 of the 6 runs Garland gave up on Tuesday and his WHIP is 1.32 for the month. Not good, but good enough for a sub 5.00 ERA. Garcia's WHIP for the month is actually a miniscule .93, but he gave up a 3 run homer to inflate his ERA in both of his starts this month.

Playing in the Cell, there's no doubt that Sox pitchers are going to give up some dingers and have some rough nights. That's why it's so important for the pitchers to throw strikes and not give up any walks to keep these home runs solo shots. I'm not quite sure that all of these pitchers are up for the task. But I still feel good with Buerhle, Garcia and Garland taking the mound.

Oh Well, A 5-1 Road Trip's Not Bad

The Sox come home from a successful road trip to face the D-Backs tonight. Rowand's three run homer in the tenth yesterday helped soothe my pain after staying up late to watch Hermanson blow his first save as Sox lost 2-1 on Saturday night.

Everyone knows what happened, so I won't recap. But I will add my to voice to all the other Sox fans who cannot believe Guillen let Mark Buerhle bat with no outs, runners on the corners, in the 8th inning of an one run game!

But hey, the way the Padres were teeing off on Hermanson in the 9th, I doubt that would have stopped scoring at 2 runs anyway (at least that's what I was telling myself as I was trying to sleep after the game).

While it certainly has been frustrating watching Ozzieball the past 200+ games, I've come to the realization that the in- game tactics of a major league manager just aren't that important (at least in a 162 game season). It might cost a team a few games over a full season, but getting the team to play each and every day to its fullest potential is the hallmark of a great manager.

For crying out loud, Guillen's not even as bad as Dusty on the North Side, yet Baker continues to have his teams in the playoff hunt every year!

Anyway, the fact that the Sox have led in all but 4 games this year is a sign that the Sox come ready to play. And the amazing thing is, even though thay have baseball's best record, it's not that hard to imagine them with something like a 47-15 record instead of 42-20. The fact they have led in all but 4 games also means that they have blown 16 leads!

Sox Notes

The Sox have played in 20 series so far this year. They have won the first two games in 14 of the 20 series.

In Game 1 of a series the Sox are 15-5.
In Game 2 of a Series the Sox are 17-3.
In Game 3 of a series the Sox are 7-9.
In Game 4 of a series the Sox are 0-2.

The Sox have had 10 previous chances to finish a 3 game sweep but have only gone 3-7 in those games. They get their 11th opportunity tonight against the Rockies.

This year the Sox have scored two runs or less 14 times and are 6-8 in those games. Last year at this time the Sox had scored two runs or less 14 times and were 0-14 in those games.

Treading Water

Since going to a season high 19 games above 500 after two wins against the Cubs the Sox have been basically treading water. The shame of it is that ther have a lot of winnable games that let get away in the late innings (the Prior game against the Cubs, the Contreras game in Anaheim, the Contreras game on Wednesday). It seems that even thought the sox continue to enjoy the best record record in baseball a lot of people are down on them. Perhaps the persistent disrespect given to this team by the national media is starting to permeate the fan base.

But I'm not too worried. For me, the fact that the Sox have been playing like crap the last two weeks and are still 17 games above 500, 3.5 games ahead of the Twins, is a great sign. This team is going to turn things around offensively and the pitching should continue to shine.

Hopefully, with Walker being sent down and Vizcaino getting hit hard, it has become even obvious to Ozzie what the pecking order should be in the bullpen. It looks like he will need to stick with Marte, Politte and Hermanson. If he has to go to the pen early, go to Cotts. Vizcaino and Takatsu should only be used when they Sox are comfortably ahead or uncomfortably behind.

6PM Weekday Start?

For the first time I can remember, the Cubs are playing a 6pm night game at Wrigley. That should make for a nice commute home!

Speaking of Wrigley, I'll be going to my first ballgame of the year tomorrow as the Cubs play the Rockies. It's pretty funny listening to Cub fans get excited over the prospect of reaching .500 after hearing them criticize the Sox for not beating any "good teams" (which I guess doesn't include the Twins, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers, Indians and of course the Cubs). Now that the Cubs have strung a few wins together against the likes of the Pirates and Astros they're all giddy about making some trades for a playoff run.

But here in the reality-based community, we have actual playoff tweaking to do, such as replacing Joe Crede at third. So here's my question: is Joe Randa a big enough step up to make it worth trading a prospect? Or more likely, would the Reds trade Randa for Crede straight-up, going with Crede's lower salary and slight upside?

Condo For Sale

I'm selling my condo if anyone is interested in moving to the Lakeview area. I live 5 blocks directly north of Wrigley, description below:

Buena Park Gem!
Spacious, sunny vintage home with all the modern comforts, and deeded parking included! This top floor, 6 room (2 bed + den, 1 bath) unit features hardwood floors throughout, gorgeous moldings, original oak built-ins, 9'+ ceilings and lots of character. Kitchen has 42" white cabinets and a large bkfst. bar opens to the dining/great room. Living room has big bay windows and lovely French doors. Both bedrooms have closet organizer systems and custom painting. Den is the perfect space for an office or nursery. Huge south-facing deck, in-unit wash/dryer, central air/heat, and one deeded parking space make this home a true find! Private storage space in basement is a bonus. Building is a 3-story, brick six-flat on a quiet, tree-lined street. Walk to "el", lake, shops, parks, dining. Just move in and start enjoying this unique home!
LR. 17x14, DR. 19x12, KT. 14x9, MB. 12x11, B2. 12x10, DEN 10x8, DECK 18x8, STRG. 11x11.
Plus one additional shared guest parking space for the building.
Assmt. $159/month, taxes $2669 in '03, pets are welcome!

E-mail me for more info.

Idol Thoughts

I’ve been a huge fan of American Idol since its first season and always wanted to blog about it. Now that the contestants are down to a manageable five, I guess I’ll go ahead and do it. My comments from last nights show, in order of appearance:

Anthony “The Ballad King” Fedorov: Anthony has really limited range and only does well with slow ballads. His version of Poison Ivy was just horrible. But he usually picks songs with limited range and does decent enough for him to get by on his squeaky clean white boy looks.

Scott “Chief Wiggims” Savol: Scott Savol has to be one of the ugliest contestants to ever appear on American Idol. What’s even more surprising about his success on the show is his complete inability to sing. And to hit the trifecta, he has an awful whiteboyghetto attitude that is absolutely grating. How he lasted longer than Nadia Turner or Nikko Smith is beyond me.

Oh, and did you here his comment last night about how its great to have a fashion consultant on the show to help him appear more appealing to America? Hey Scott, did she tell you to shave your thin-lined beard for the show? Because I must say, I don’t think it was such a hot idea to expose your fourth and fifth chins to America last night. Ick.

Anyway, about the performance. His version of On Broadway was actually not the bad. But the Brian McNight song he did deserves to get him booted off the show.

Vonzell Solomon: Vonzell brings so much energy to the stage that it makes up for some voice problems. But she sings alright and is beautiful to look at it. And she has a slightly ditzy personality that is also very attractive (don’t ask me why). That shout-out out to the US Postal Service was hilarious!

Carrie Underwood: Great singer, wonderful to look at, but stiffer than a mannequin. You need some type of stage presence to win American Idol and she just doesn’t have it.

Bo Bice: His Stand By Me was a copy of the original, not very creative. Pretty much the same thing with that Los Lonely Boys Song. But he has a niche that should carry him to the finals.

My Preference:
1. Vonzell Solomon
2. Bo Bice
3. Carrie Underwood
4. Anthony Federov
5. Scott Savol

General Thoughts: I think the contestants in previous years had much more talent. This year they all seem to have issues. And thank goodness Constantine got booted last week. His playing up to the cameras was unbearable. And what was up with all the eye liner! Are the Cure looking for a new lead singer?

I Know It's Early, But...

Okay, I know its early in the season, but I’m ready to drink the Kool-Aid and declare the Sox the best team in the AL Central. Everything I write from here on out will be with the expectation that the Sox will be division champs come October.

For the first few weeks of the season, the “experts” said that the Sox pitching would eventually falter. They said the Sox couldn’t continue to win with an offense that didn’t draw walks and had the worst OBP in baseball. Well, so far the experts have everything backwards.

It was the offense that was playing well below its potential. In the past two weeks the Sox have improved their OBP by over 20 points and they now stand 8th in the AL at .321. At the same time the pitching staff continues to dominate the AL with an ERA of 3.05. The next closest team are the Angels at 3.52.

Now I think we have two pitchers who will regress towards their career averages: Garland and Contreras. But I don’t think the regression will be as sharp as many people expect, as both, especially Garland, may be finally living up to expectations.

But even if that team ERA does drift closer to 4.00 than 3.00 as the season progresses, the offense should improve more than enough to keep the team atop the Central. Even now they are scoring as many runs as the Twins without significant contributions from the heart of the order. Their 4/5/6 hitters, Konerko, Rowand and Dye, have OPS percentages of .769/.663/.552, respectively, well off their career averages of .824/.804/.792. When these guys get going the pitching staff will be able give up a few more runs while still winning ballgames.

The bottom line is that Kenny Williams has built a nice solid team. And make no mistake,this is his team. His first four seasons at the helm were spent basically trying to tweak the 2000 division winners he inherited from Ron Schueler. For whatever reason, these teams were never able to duplicate its earlier success.

So Kenny finally gave up on Lee, Ordonez, and Valentin and decided to go in a new direction. So far that direction is up. The pitching staff consists of a solid starting five, if not an ace, and a strong bullpen. The offense is a nice mix of power and speed. As someone who has often criticized him in the past, I have to give Williams credit for a job well done.

Sox v. KC

Tonight the Sox look to continue their success against the AL Central (15-4) and KC (3-0) in particular as Mark Buehrle takes on Brian Anderson. Brian Anderson looked as if he was going to be a nice pick up for KC as they traded for him late in 2003. But he followed up a couple of decent starts for KC in 2003 with his worst year in the majors. Last year he went 6-12 with a 5.64 ERA. Of course two of his six wins came against the Sox. Both wins came in complete games (his only 2 in 2004) with one being a shut out.

Let hope the Sox can do better against him tonight. Mark Buehrle takes the mound trying to shake off his worst performance of the year. Buehrle couldn’t hold on to leads of 3-0 and 7-4 against the A's last Wednesday before leaving the game without a decision. Buerhle didn’t have his best stuff but managed to shut out the A’s through 4 innings. But things fell apart in the fifth after he failed to respond to Rich Harden’s deliberate beaning of Crazy Carl.

Cheaters!

Heh.

Streak Over

Last nights game was pretty hard to watch. The Sox basically gave away a game they should have won. They did a great job getting to Harden yet failed to break the game wide open. But still, taking a 7-4 lead in the sixth should have been enough to carry them home.

They lost this game for a number of reasons. Horrible defense, bad calls, injuries, you name it. But the biggest part of the blame has to go to Ozzie. It was clear all night that Buehrle didn’t have his best stuff. He wasn’t striking out anyone and needed 3 double plays to escape jams in the early innings. So it was no surprise that he gave up 4 in the 5th to let the A’s take a 4-3 lead.

So when the Sox got the lead back he needed to be on a short leash. This was especially true in the 7th as the top half of the inning took over 15 minutes to play. Uribe went down with an injury just standing in the batters box and the trainers were forced to come out again when Ozuna was hit in the forearm with a pitch.

I didn’t have a problem with Buehrle starting the inning as his pitch count was still in the 80s. But he needed to be pulled when Byrnes opened the inning with a single. He really needed to be pulled after Kendall followed with another single. How do you let him face Chavez in this situation? Marte was warmed up and ready to go. But Ozzie left Buehrle in, Chavez doubled, and the Sox went on to lose.

I shouldn’t be too upset as the Sox won a couple of games they had no business winning during this streak. But somehow that fails to make me feel better. Luckily there is a quick turnaround and I can erase this one from my memory with a Sox victory this afternoon.

And one final thing: Harden clearly threw at Everett, nailing him in the back in the 5th. It was really a punk ass move that required some sort of retaliation. The Cheat is right that something needs to be done today if Ozzie wants to back up all his smack with some actions.

The Sox are on to Kansas City to face the Royals. KC failed to help the Sox yesterday as they blew a couple of leads and fell 10-9 in ten innings against the Twins. Let's hope they continue playing bad ball against the Sox.

They Sox are starting to hit the ball and draw some walks. It’s about time the offense comes around as they aren’t going to win the division getting on base at a .285 clip. Especially since I don’t expect them to lead the AL in pitching all year.

Anyway, I’m not a believer in this team yet, preferring to wait until they finish up their road trip against Oakland. If they can finally win a series at the Coliseum I might start to take their playoff chances seriously.

Sox 5 Twins 4

The Sox have certainly had a strange start to the season. Any unbiased observer would admit that they are not exactly playing good baseball and yet they are 9-4. But they are 6-1 in one run games, a pretty good sign that they are catching some breaks. The question is whether the way they are playing now is indicative of their actual talent level. If it is, the good times will not last long.

But who knows. I've had a hard time figuring out this team the last few years so why should the 2005 version be any different.

As for the mini-controversy between Guillen and the Big Hurt, I would really like to know what Ozzie was thinking. Frank has been a good trooper, saying all the right things, and there is no reason for Ozzie to continue to take shots at him. Let the man be!

And everyone needs to chill a bit on Crazy Carl. Yes, he's off to a good start. But he's not doing anything that extraordinary. He's putting up numbers that would be considered par for the course for Big Frank. When Big Frank comes back, he will need to get most the at-bats at DH.

I will say this about Everett though, his second homer off Lohse, a monster shot, was a thing of beauty. Man, was he waiting for that fastball!

So Far So Good

The Sox are 6-2, winning close games, and relying on their starting pitching. There were two big questions marks in the starting rotation to start the season: will Hernandez stay healthy and will Contreras stay consistent. Its way too early to make any judgments, but so far the results look good. We'll get another look at El Duque tonight as he takes the mound against the Indians.

I actually have more faith in Hernandez staying healthy than Contreras staying consistent. I really think it's a matter of time before Contreras gets knocked around. The key will be how he responds. Let's face it, for the last two years the Sox played with only four starting pitchers and basically forfeited games in the fifth slot of the rotation. So they can afford for Contreras to blow up every now and then. But if he can limit those blow up games and go six innings 80% of his starts, the Sox will have a chance to win 90+ games this year.

Sandy Berger Should Be Sent to Prison

I live life on a pretty even keel. I like to think of myself as an optimist but with a firm grasp on reality. What I’m trying to get at is that it takes a lot for me to feel outraged.

But today I sit here in disbelief reading about the criminal acts of Sandy Berger. For months everyone knew he took classified documents out of the national archives as he prepared to testify before the 9/11 commission. He claimed he took them out by accident and then when he got home he accidentally destroyed them. Oh boy, does this man have accidents. Former President Bill Clinton backed him up. The press didn’t pursue the story.

Now the Washington Post has a story saying Berger will plead guilty to a misdemeanor and goes on to shed some light on what actually happened:

The terms of Berger's agreement required him to acknowledge to the Justice Department the circumstances of the episode. Rather than misplacing or unintentionally throwing away three of the five copies he took from the archives, as the former national security adviser earlier maintained, he shredded them with a pair of scissors late one evening at the downtown offices of his international consulting business.

So here we have the 9/11 Commission trying to figure out how the attacks happened and what could be done to prevent new attacks in the future. It was a commission trying to answer questions vital to this nation. It was a commission that needed the full cooperation of all witnesses.

And here we have Sandy Berger committing criminal acts in order to cover his ass, or Bill Clinton’s ass, or someone’s ass. We’ll never know as these documents have been destroyed. And then he lied to investigators and tried to cover up what he had done.

I wish this was the only outrage to the story but there is so much more. The press ignored this story even though the basic facts were known. Why wasn’t it pursued? They pursued the Bush national guard story for five years, but couldn’t pursue this one for five days.

But the biggest outrage is the potential plea agreement that may be reached. According to the Post, “he has agreed to pay a $10,000 fine and accept a three-year suspension of his national security clearance”.

What? Are you kidding me? This man commits a crime in order to hide information from the 9/11 Commission and all he has to do is pay $10,000? And he will get his security clearance back! Please, this man belongs in jail.

We’ll see how this plays out but I can’t help but think we’ll be hearing plenty more about this story in the next few days.

Craps, Odds, and Expected Returns

I’ll be in Vegas this weekend and have been brushing up on some gambling strategies. One great resource that I like to use is the Wizard of Odds. It gives you the best play on all the basic casino games and allows you to play some of them for free.

But one strategy that has always struck me as intuitively wrong deals with taking the fullest odds allowed in craps. The wizard's craps guide, like other strategies I’ve seen, suggest taking the fullest odds possible after a pass line bet. The basic idea is that the house has an 1.41% on the pass line bet while there is no house edge on the odds bet. So every extra dollar on the odds bet reduces the average house edge:

House Edge – Pass Line Bet With Odds

Odds	Edge
1X	.848%
2X	.606%
3X	.471%
5X	.326%
10X	.184%
20X	.099%
100X	.021%

As the table shows this strategy seems to make sense. You can reduce the house edge all the way to .021% with 100X odds! But hold on. What’s the expected return on each of these bets? I’ll use a pass line bet of $100 (I wish!) to demonstrate:

Expected Return – Pass Line Bet With Odds

Odds	Expected Return
1X	-$1.41
2X	-$1.41
3X	-$1.41
5X	-$1.41
10X	-$1.41
20X	-$1.41
100X	-$1.41

As you can see, even though the house edge is reduced, the expected return remains unchanged. However, you now have a lot more cash on the table.

You can look at it another way to see the logic doesn’t hold. What if they weren’t "even money" odds? What if the odds bet actually had a .50% house edge. Well, again, every extra dollar bet on the odds would reduce the overall house edge. But every extra dollar is still a losing proposition and I don’t think many people would suggest betting 100X odds.

To make one more illustrative point, let’s take a car company that loses $5 dollars for every car they make. Because of this loss, they decide to make trucks that only lose $1 per vehicle. Now they can reduce the average loss per vehicle to $3! Does this sound like a good plan? Of course not. What should drive the investment decision is the marginal profit/loss not the average profit and loss.

Now of course the odds bet is still among the best you will find in the casino and anyone who gambles will want to take advantage of it. But the decision of how much to put down on the odds bet is completely independent of the house edge on the pass line bet. The pass line bet is a sunk cost and there is nothing you can do to change it. The marginal return of each bet should be the only factor in the decision making process, and of course the marginal return on the odds bet is zero.

So if your not a high roller don’t worry about only taking 1X or 2X odds on the pass line bet. There is not a valid economic reason to bet more. You will have the same expected return of the bettor who puts down 3x odds or 10x odds.

Thank Your Lucky Stars

Great seasons in college basketball are only validated by a trip to the final four. So it's easy to understand the jubilation shown by Illini fans after the remarkable comeback Saturday night. It was not only the joy of winning, but the relief of not watching another Illinois team fall short of expectations.

With four minutes left I had already started pondering how this team will be remembered. Overachievers? Chokers? A team that peaked too soon? But those questions will never have to be answered after a 4 minute run that remains too good to be true.

But for some reason, I can’t seem to fully share in the unbridled joy being displayed by players, coaches, fans and sportswriters. There is just something unsatisfying about how this game was won.

First, I need to say that this was not one of the "greatest college basketball games ever played", a statement made by more than one sportswriter in the past few days. Come on, was it really that great watching the Illini get their asses handed to them for most of the second half? I’ll give you that it was one of the greatest comebacks in tourney history. But game? I would never want to sit through the first 36 minutes again, that’s for sure.

Second, Illinois got beat in this game in every way except on the scoreboard. They were outplayed, outsmarted, and outcoached. A huge reason they are advancing to the final four is sheer luck. I know every team needs a few breaks to advance in the tourney. But if someone had scripted this ending for a movie the audience would walk out saying “bullshit”.

This is not to say that Illinois didn’t play great the last four minutes or show a lot of heart. Indeed they did, and they should be proud. My only point is that they could have played great and showed a lot of heart and still lost by 8.

I would rather Illinois win their games in the fashion of the 1985 Bears - not the 2001 Bears. I want them to beat their opponents not luck out at the end.

Of course, they wouldn’t be the first team to receive a few fortunate bounces on the way to a championship. But if they lose to Louisville on Saturday, I can’t help but think how I will remember the 2005 Illini: a team that was lucky to make it to the final four.

Friday Notes

My last post was premature as Mark Buehrle did not suffer a broken bone in his foot and is scheduled to start opening day.

The bad news of the week is that they brought Chloe back on 24. Is there a more annoying character on TV right now? I thought I had seen the last of her on 24 when she appeared on Fox's "The Sketch Show". I guess 24 decided to extend this year's torture theme beyond the storyline and to its viewers.

Speaking of 24, it's been very hard to take the President seriously in this year. The actor used play the father in the Married With Children take-off, Unhappily Ever After. I keep waiting for him to speak to Mr. Floppy.

But on the bright side of TV land, Mikalah Gordon was voted off American Idol. She was just plain awful (not to mention weird).

Buerhle Out

The Sox got their first bad break of the season as it looks like Mark Buerhle may be out up to six weeks with a fractured bone in his foot. Thankfully, Brandon McCarthy has been pitching great in spring training and looks like he will be a capable fill-in for a couple of starts before Buerhle comes back the end of April/early May. But even with McCarthy pitching well, the loss of Buehrle comes at a horrible time for the Sox as they start the season with a slate full of AL Central opponents.

On a personal note, I plan on blogging more after taking a couple of months off. There has been limited blogging for two reasons: first I was finishing up my MBA and my final two courses happened to be quite challenging; second, I don't follow the baseball offseason that closely.

Now that the season is approaching I plan on blogging more, although there will be a short interruption as I plan to celebrate finishing the MBA program by going out to Vegas for the final four and opening day.

Illini Fever

Today the Trib has a full page story on Illinois' trainer. It can only be a matter of days (and a big win against Wisconsin) before the student managers get their day in the sun.

Class Act

I just finished reading a rather unextraordinary column is Slate about recent plagiarism scandals in the academic world. It's pretty uncontroverial even if it does seem to hand Doris Kearns Goodwin a pass when it comes to her transgressions. Maybe her plagiarism was unintentional, but she did reach a private settlement with the plagiarized author and did not subsequently publish a correction.

The most striking thing about the article is the final paragraph, where the author states:

For all the media hysteria that standards had fallen, it should be noted that Bellesiles was stripped of his job, Ellis suspended for a year, and Goodwin bounced from the PBS NewsHour and the Pulitzer Prize board. These were all perfectly appropriate punishments. Ambrose, as an author who simply didn't care about his scholarly reputation anymore and who could get paid handsomely for cookie-cutter best sellers, seemed distressingly beyond penalty. But, a lifelong smoker who had testified in court on behalf of big tobacco, he died of lung cancer in October 2002.

Is is just me or is that last sentence quite over the top and vile?

Sox Trade Lee

If the Sox were going to trade any of their big right handed hitters, I always thought it made the most sense to trade Carlos Lee. Without a doubt, Carlos Lee is a good ball player. But his trade value to the Sox was greater than his true value on the field.

Or so I thought until Kenny Williams pulled the trigger and traded El Caballo to the Brewers for light-hitting Scott Posednik and a relief pitcher. Without a doubt the Brewers came out on top talent wise in this deal. I would like to believe even Kenny Williams realizes this. So the key to this trade is the $6 million in salary that the Sox just unloaded. Rumors are that the Sox plan on picking up another starting pitcher.

This deal will need to be judged in light of any free agent signing the Sox make with the money they saved unloading Carlos. The Cheat runs the numbers here.

Great Article, Great Blog

If your into college basketball I would suggest reading this great article on last week's Illinois-Wake Forest game. And if your into Big Ten basketball, definitely check out the site where I found the article, Big Ten Wonk.

Friday Football Picks

Last week against the spread: 2-1
Pick of the week: 1-0
Last week straight up: 3-2

YTD against the spread: 12-3 (.800)
YTD Pick of the week: 4-1 (.800)
YTD straight up: 15-9 (.625)

I finished 2-1 against the spread for the third stright week. My only blemish was picking the Spartans against Ohio State. Their backup QB had started the season by losing a home game to Rutgers so I should have known better. But he played okay against Michigan. At least until losing a 17 point lead in the final 6 minutes.

So let's recap:

he lost at home to Rutgers. Ok.
blew 17 point lead to Michigan. Ok
put money on him against Ohio State. Huh?

Okay in retrospect it looks dumb. But like our President, I won't dwell on my past mistakes, I'll just move on to my next one.

Look for Wisconsin (-8) to blow the Spartans out this week. It will be a shame if an undefeated Wisconsin team doesn't make it to the national championship game. A USC/Wisconsin match up would be great. Unfortunately, if it happens, it won't be in the Rose Bowl.

Without a doubt, the Badgers are head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten and there is no way the Spartans can hang with them. This is my pick of the week.

One funny note, my wife saw the headline "Big Red Menace" in the Sunday Trib and thought they were insulting the Badgers (she's an alum). I had to let her know the headline was actually a compliment, although I do understand how someone who spent four years of her life in Madison may find the headline "Big Red Menace" threatening.

My only other pick is Northwestern (+13.5) over Michigan in Ann Arbor. I don't think the Wildcats will win but they should keep it close.

Straight up: Iowa over Minnesota, Purdue over OSU, Indiana over Penn St. I'm tempted to pick Indiana with the spread (they're 3 point home underdogs). But it's hard enough just picking them to win. I'm not ready to put money on 'em.

Friday Big Ten Picks

Last week against the spread: 2-1
Pick of the week: 0-1
Last week straight up: 2-3

YTD against the spread: 10-2
YTD Pick of the week: 3-1
YTD straight up: 12-7

I try never to pick against home teams that are over ten point underdogs. That's really the only rule I try to follow when I pick against the spread. But last week I not only picked Iowa (-11) over Illinois in Champaign, I made it my pick of the week. It ended it being my only loss against the spread as I finished 2-1 for the second week in a row. The football gods were in an especially foul mood as the Illini ended up beating the spread by scoring a touchdown with under a minute left. Final score 23-13.

This week I see three more games that have nice spreads. The first is Wisconsin (-6.5) over Minnesota in Madison. Minnesota has proven they can score but have not proven they can win on the road. They have lost on the road to Michigan, MSU and Indiana (yikes!). I have hard time imagining them staying close to the Badgers coming off a bye week.

I'll also take Nortwestern (+3.5) over Penn State. How in the world is Penn State the favorite? This team is about to hit bottom. This is my pick of the week.

I'll also take Michigan State over Ohio State in East Lansing. Ohio State beats two bad teams at home and all of the sudden they can hang with a good team on the road? I don't think so. Take the Spartans (-1.5), even with the loss of Stanton at QB.

The rest straight-up: Illinois over Indiana, Purdue over Iowa.

Election Night Coverage

Now I know people don't stop by this site for media criticism. In fact, not many people stop by this site period. But since I was up late watching the results last night I thought I would offer my take on the coverage, from best to worst:

1. NBC News. This is our household's regular news source (as my wife has a crush on both Brokaw & Russert) so I think familiarity is the main reason I found their coverage thebest of all the networks. Their take on on events is usually pretty predictable but the coverage still manages not to be boring. And NBC News seems to have a heads up on the competition when it comes to graphics. The scrolls at the bottom were easy to read and I liked that they had a box on the right side of the screen that continually updated the national vote.

2 MSNBC News. MSNBC comes with much of the same features as the network broadcast including the same viewer friendly graphics. I'm also a big fan of Chris Matthews. I'm not sure why, as I disagree with him on most issues. But I find him sincere and enjoy the guests he brings to his roundtable.

Last night I was particularly impressed by Joe Scarborough. I haven't been a big fan of his but he is starting to grow on me. I thought he dominated the roundtable discussions last night and pretty much set the tone for an expected Bush victory before it was the CW. As for Ron Reagan, he doesn't have a clue, but is useful as comic relief.

3. Fox News. I used to be a big fan of Special Report with Brit Hume but can no longer stay up past 11pm to watch it. He is definitely sympathetic to the conservative point of view but only looks "right wing" when compared to other news organizations.

Fox did a good job with the scroll and graphics, coming in only a notch below those of NBC. Like MSNBC, I always enjoy the roundtable guests on Fox. Last night they included Fred Barnes, Mort Kondracke, Bill Kristol and Juan Williams. I do sometimes feel sorry for Juan Williams, as he is the lone liberal voice on the set. Of course, he doesn't help matters by saying so many stupid things.

They also had Michael Barone giving tremendous insight into where the votes were coming from in each state which enabled him to shed some light on the unrealistic claims of a late surge carrying Ohio for Kerry.

4. CNN. There was a huge difference in quality between the top 3 and bottom 3. I'll give CNN spot 4 just ahead of ABC. The graphics on CNN were just miserable. The bottom scroll had the candidate names in what I would call a normal size font next to some large sized percentage numbers. It was just a mess. By midnight I was too tired to figure out what the hell they were showing down there. Also, I didn't really find the the TV sets showing the results from each state all that helpful. I'm actually surpised how poorly CNN does with these type of events.

Also, they get demerits for not calling Ohio for Bush even after 99% of the vote was counted.

5. ABC. Pretty bad. I thought there was a lack of expert opinion on the broadcast. As for their graphics, they would often just show states as too close to call and without raw vote totals. This is just plain stupid as the raw vote totals do tell much of the story.

6. CBS. I only watched about 5 minutes of CBS but it was easily the worst I saw. Just bad graphics and a lack of seriousness. But I guess that's only because I find Dan Rather funny. Also, the five minutes I watched had local elections scrolling at the bottom of the screen. Like I care who won the Will County state's attorney race. Whatever.

Friday Big Ten Picks

Last week against the spread: 2-1
Pick of the week: 1-0
Last week straight up: 4-1

YTD against the spread: 8-1
YTD Pick of the week: 3-0
YTD straight up: 10-4

My unbeaten streak came to an end last week as Michigan upset Purdue. Of the three games I picked, that was the game I was least confident about. Oh well, I can live with 2 out of 3 each week. Iowa squeaked out a win at Penn St. and Ohio State routed Indiana. Like I said, the Buckeyes aren't that good this year, but Indiana is still Indiana.

I have three more picks against the spread this week. I'll start by taking Michigan State and 11 points against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. I'm ready to admit that Michigan is good. They were impressive last week and I think they'll win on Saturday. But 11 points seems a bit too much to give a big rival and an improving State team.

Next, I'll take Ohio State (-6.5) against Penn State. Last week's route of Indiana should give the Buckeyes some confidence. And their defense shouldn't have much trouble with the Penn State offense. If this was away I wouldn't be comfortable picking the Buckeyes. But they should safely win by +7 at home.

My pick of the week is Iowa (-11) over Illinois down in Champaign. This goes against my usual rule of not picking against huge home underdogs. But after last week's humiliating loss against the Gophers and rumors of Ron Turner being fired (about time) I can't see Illinois putting together much of a challenge. Iowa by 20.

I'm tempted to take Minnesota (-17) over Indiana, but I don't want to violate my rule twice in the same week. I'll just take them straight up along with Purdue over Northwestern.

Smallville

I thought last night’s Smallville, where Clark and Lionel Luther switched bodies, was the best episode so far this year. I always find it entertaining when actors switch characters. Last night reminded me of my college days when I watched David Canary play both the rich, manipulative Adam on All My Children, as well as his dim-witted twin brother Stuart. Don’t even get me started on David Canary portraying Adam pretending to be Stewart. Classic stuff.

Anyway, I thought both the Tom Welling (Clark) and John Glover (Lionel) did a great job of picking up the mannerisms of each character. It was especially funny watching Lionel (in Clark’s body) hit on all the pretty young high school girls. But the highlight was him asking Clark’s mom for a hug.

My wife was not as enthused by the episode, as she found it disgusting watching this old man lusting after Smallville’s teen population. But given the fact the he just went from the body of a dying old man in prison to a buff young stud, I think you can cut the guy some slack. Hell, if you put me back in high school in Tom Welling’s body and I ---- well, I better not go there seeing as I have in-laws that read this site.

But I’ll just say that I thought old Lionel was quite restrained in chasing after the girls. I mean all this guy could think about was trying to get his hands on his $57 million. Come on Lionel, you are supposed to be a criminal genius/businessman and you can’t figure some way to turn your new found superhuman powers into unending riches? You had to have the $57 million that was sitting in your bank account?

But that’s a minor quibble. I don’t watch the show for it’s compelling logic.

.

The Bear's Offense Sure Looks Sick

But I don't that qualifies them to receive flu shots.

Friday Big Ten Picks

Last week against the spread: 2-0
Pick of the week: 1-0
Last week straight up: 2-2

YTD against the spread: 6-0
YTD Pick of the week: 2-0
YTD straight up: 6-3

My streak continued last week as both Wisconsin and Iowa covered the spread. I lost the Wisconsin-Purdue game straight up as I thought Purdue would pull it out. But hey, I said it would be close and it was. I think Michigan State routing Minnesota surprised everyone.

My pick of the week is Iowa over Penn St. Penn State is favored by 2.5 at home but I see them as a 3 point underdog. I think bettors are paying too much attention to the fact that the Nittany Lions played Purdue close and not enough attention to the beating Iowa gave Ohio State last week. Iowa should win straight up and against the spread.

I’ll also look for Purdue to cover this week as they are 4.5 points favorites over Michigan at home. Michigan is better than I gave them credit for a couple of weeks ago but I still think Purdue is the better team. Michigan also had trouble against the passing game of San Diego St. Given that fact, Purdue shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball through the air. Boilermakers by 7.

After going against Ohio State twice in the last two weeks (and winning), I expect them to cover against Indiana at home (13 points). Ohio State is not very good this year, but come one, were talking about Indiana. Ohio State by 20.

Straight up I’ll go with Wisconsin over Northwestern but I think it might be closer than the 12 point spread. I’m not sure what to think of Minnesota. But they shouldn’t have many problems beating Illinois. By 17 points? Like I said, I’m not sure what to think.

Comparing Netflix and Blockbuster

A few months back I decided to switch my DVD service from Netflix to Blockbuster. Netflix had raised their rates to 21.99 while Blockbuster monthly rates stayed at 19.99.

I figured that they were both basically the same service competing on price. So switching seemed to be the rational thing to do.

But I have to warn you that it is not the same service.

First, most of the new releases at Blockbuster are not immediately available. Now, I ran into this problem a few times at Netflix (although not in the last six months), but most of the movies in my queue at BB say either short wait, long wait, or very long wait.

In addition, the turnaround time in receiving movies through the mail seems to take a little bit longer with BB. I've noticed that Netflix had a Chicago mailing address while BB is out of state. Does Netflix have warehouses set up at different locations to speed delivery? I don't know, but they are definitely quicker than BB.

Finally, Netflix has a more user-friendly web-site. The difference in quality isn't that great, but enough to be noticeable.

I was actually quite surprised to find that BB's service was inferior as I thought a company with the resources of Blockbuster would be able to match the service of an upstart like Netflix.

Now I'm not sure if I made the right decision as the hassle of waiting for movies probably isn't worth the two bucks I save.

But just now I received an e-mail from Blockbuster notifying me that they are reducing their rate to $17.49 a month. I believe that's pretty much an admission that their service basically sucks. Now the question is whether I want to pay an extra $4.50 for the quality of Netflix.

One last note. Some people claim that each service is able to hold onto to customers by letting them rate movies that the service then uses to recommend future titles. While it is true I have spent more time than I like to admit on Netflix rating movies, I always found their recommendations of little use. I'm not sure this will too great of an effect in preventing users from switching.

Friday Big Ten Picks

Last week against the spread: 4-0
Pick of the week: 1-0
Last week straight up: 4-1


I only have two picks against the spread this week. Ohio State goes on the road to play Iowa. This will be a battle between two teams that thus far have had disappointing seasons. The Buckeyes are favored by 2 on the road. After losing on the road in Evanston and at home against the Badgers, I just don’t see them as favorites in a Big Ten road game. Well maybe against Indiana, but not Iowa. Iowa should cover and win.

The big game this week will be down in West Lafayette as the Big Ten’s last two undefeated team, Wisconsin and Purdue, face off. I think it will be a close game. A great Badger defense vs. a great Boilermaker offense. I think a 7 point spread is too high so put your money on the Badgers. You should at least be able to walk away with a push so I’ll make this my pick of the week. As for straight, I think Purdue will pull this one out.

Michigan takes on the Illini down in Champaign and arrive as a 18.5 point favorites. Now that seems like a huge spread to give a Big Ten team playing at home and I’m tempted to go with the Illini. But Illinois is a pretty bad team. And bad teams are unpredictable. They can sometimes stay close in home games but are just as likely to give up hope and lose by 30. Stay away from this one.

The final game has Minnesota going into East Lansing as 9.5 point favorites. Like last year, the Gophers took on the Spartans after a tough loss to Michigan. I think the Gophers will at least split the two games this year, but I’m not comfortable with 9.5 point spread. Minnesota straight up, no prediction against the spread.

Election Season

I'm in agreement with the Democratic Party on a number of issues (mainly social). But I find it terribly difficult to vote for anyone on the Democratic side.

There are many reasons, and Stephen Green nails one of them. Here's his response to the lefts latest tactic of falsely claiming voter fraud and intimidation so they can lay the groundwork of litigating the results of this election if things don't go their way:

Now, I know this is an angry essay. However, I don't mean to imply that all Democrats are evil and all Republicans are sweetness and light. Far from it. But for the first time in 16 years, I'm going to vote Republican straight down the line. If I have to punish a couple of local Democrats I'm fond of, then so be it, but I have to try to get a point across: The national Democratic Party is bad for this country.

I don't say that because of their policies, which I probably agree with more than I do the Republicans. But because their tactics would cause more harm to this country than the Federal Marriage Amendment, the Republican budget deficit, and Congress's corporate tax giveaways, combined.

As they say, read the whole thing.

Now this latest election tactic is one of many things that I find repugnant about the Democratic Party. But it's only an extension of what infects the party at its core: the belief that the other side is evil. When a party becomes completed seeped in self-righteousness, continually demonizes those that disagree with them, and sees itself as a victim of everything under sun, it is only a matter of time before they start believing it's okay to grab power by any means necessary. I guess that time has arrived.

Smallville

Has anyone else been the least be perturbed by how racy Smallville has been this season?

It started with the introduction of the Lois Lane character. For a while I thought the character was in her mid-20's. She's pretty hot, but not in the cute high school girl sort of way.


(hot pic via Devoted to Smallville)

So it was very surprising to find out she will be spending a fifth year in high school this season! She's supposed to be 18?

But I guess grown women playing high school girls on TV is a pretty common phenomenon. But hot and heavy shower scenes, like the one on last week's episode, probably shouldn't be on a 7pm family show. The girl on girl kiss was a bit more innocent (it wasn't sexually motivated - she just needed to deliver a hallucinogen through a fluid secretion. Good Stuff!).

I don't even want to get into the storyline of a school employee having a relationship with a student.

Now this week's episode is based on all the kids taking some sort of an aphrodisiac and getting all hot and horny.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not a prude. But everything has its time and place. I just think it would be nice to have a show that's interesting enough for adults to watch and wholesome enough to be seen in front of children. That's what Smallville used to be. But if the last few episodes are any indication, the show is no longer suitable for kids under 13.

Hot Streak

Wow, I've been on a roll with my college football predictions. Two weeks ago I predicted Northwestern would upset Ohio State which they did. That inflated my ego so I thought I would go ahead and predict all the Big Ten games last week. I finished 4-0 against the spread, correctly predicting Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota, and Michigan State to cover.

I went 4-1 overall as I also predicted the Gophers to win straight up, which they failed to do, losing by 3.

So I guess I'll post my predictions earlier this week to give all you gambling types a heads up.

Speaking of gambling types, Aaron Gleeman is complaining about how tired he is today because he stayed up watching the Yankees-Red Sox game. Poor boy had to get up and go to class. Well, I managed to stay up to watch the game last night and it ended by 11.

Now when I was in college I also struggled to make morning classes but it was rarely from staying awake to 11 watching baseball. It was usually because I was staying up to 4 in the morning doing an assortment of activities, most of them legal.

So if Gleeman was tired this morning it means either:
a. he had other things going on, like downing a six pack, that he failed to mention.
or
b. he's a girlie man.

Now I know how they grow these Paul Bunyon types of up in Minnesota and Wisconsin so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and guess a.

But if he's tired now I don't suggest working full time, going to school part time, and having a baby at age 30.

And speaking of school, Kellogg was just again rated the number 1 b-school by Businessweek. The Wall Street Journal rated us sixth in the nation last month but the Businessweek rating seems to be the one that gets all the headlines. Anyway, for the price of tuition, we damn well better be number 1!

Big Games in the Big Ten

Well it's October. There's no baseball in Chicago and there Bears have a bye
week. But the Big Ten has some interesting games. Wisconsin, Minnesota and Purdue all go into enemy territory this weekend with spotless records.

Wisconsin goes into the horseshoe this weekend to take on the Buckeyes. Ohio State will try to bounce back from their overtime loss to Northwestern last weekend (which I predicted)but I don't see it happening. Ohio State is favored by 3.5. Since I don't think they will score more than 10, put your money on the Badgers.

Minnesota goes into Ann Arbor this weekend as a 3.5 point underdog just like Wisconsin. Minnesota should have beaten the Wolverines last year and will this year. Ohio State and Michigan versions 2004 just aren't every good It's just a matter of time before the oddsmakers start believing it.

Purdue goes to Happy Valley as 11 point favorites.

Did you hear that sound? I think Penn State just hit bottom. I actually feel sorry for old Joe. This is one of the few instances where the school would have shown more compassion by firing the coach. Put the old man out of his misery!

Anyway, while I expect Purdue to win I don't think they will cover. So take the line on the Lions.

No pick on the Northwestern-Indiana game. Northwestern will win but I'm not sure about making up 11.5 points.

I'll end it with my pick of the week. Illinois is a 7 point underdog against Michigan State. Take the Spartans, the money, and run.

When Does College Basketball Start?

Thanks to the Cubs final week meltdown Wrigleyville should be much quieter this October. Unfortunately, the Bears have been decimated by injuries (yes they have lost exactly 1/10th of their players) and the college teams range from bad (Illinois) to mediocre (Northern, Northwestern).

I guess I should do some type of post mortem on the Sox. But really, the season has been over for a couple of months and I'm not sure I'm up for it. We'll see.

I will say that most things that I hear coming from writers and other pundits is borderline ridiculous. One of the big arguments I hear is that the Sox need some more players who can play "small-ball".

Now you don't have to be a stat-head to realize the Sox do not have a problem with offense. Playing without their two best offensive players for more than half of the season the finished third in the AL in runs scored. They also outscored the first place Twins by 85 runs (865-780).

So, when I hear Ozzie Guillen say the Sox offense will be better next year because they are planning on getting players who can bunt and execute the hit and run, I feel like bashing my head against a brick wall.

The Sox do need another quality starter and some bullpen help. I would like for them to make a run at Matt Clement, whose market value may have been hurt by his late season injuries.

But I hold out no hope that Kenny Williams can identify the problems this team has or find any solutions.

Friday Again?

Maybe I should call this ChiSox Weekly? Anyway, another rundown.

Cubs
What a difference a week makes. Last Friday I wrote how good the Cubs were looking. They have gone 2-5 since and now have only a small chance of tying for the wildcard and extending their season.

Boo-hoo, I'm all torn up. Good luck trying to trade Sammy (as ESPN radio is reporting). I don't think any team is going to take on that salary for a guy hitting .250 with less than 40 homers on the downside of his career.

Anyway, I hope my nephew's birthday party Sunday doesn't turn into a wake (would you believe I'm the only Sox fan in the family). Hopefully, all the giddiness will be out of my system by then and I can feign sympathy.

Sox
the Sox will in fact finish with at least a .500 record for the 5th year in a row. That's only impressive when you consider the fact that this is the first time the Cubs have had back to back winning seasons in my 30 years on this Earth.

Bears
The Bears were able to move the ball last week against the Vikings but weren't able to score TD's in the red zone. That, and the fact that the officials had some real BS calls and non-calls, prevented the Bears from pulling off the upset.

It wasn't a bad effort at all considering the Bears were without Urlacher, Brown, Tillman, Azumah, Gray and Boone on defense.

Unfortunately, Rex Grossman is now out for the season, along with Brown, while Urlacher and Tillman will not play this week against the Eagles. I don't think they'll be keeping this one close.

Northwestern
Okay, the Wildcats have an absolutely horrible defense. So I don't think it makes much sense to rile up the Buckeyes by calling their offense mediocre. With that said, OSU has not looked good. I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict a big upset in Evanston tomorrow.

Illinois
The Illini did fare better than I predicted last week but still lost at home to Purdue 38-30. This week they face Wisconsin and will not be putting 30 points. I predict Illinois going down by a score resembling 28-17.

Have a great weekend!